Flood, Sweat and Tears

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THE WORST IS SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOOD CREST ON THE MISsissippi, 46 ft. above normal (and 3 ft. above the highest ever recorded before), was scheduled to pass St. Louis, Missouri, on Monday. It should roll by Cairo, Illinois, about 180 miles to the south, by Friday. There, the Ohio joins the Mississippi, which moves into a broader, deeper channel that should be able to carry all the water pouring in from upstream without overflowing the levees, dikes and dams south of Cairo. The people, businesses and farms lining the Father of Waters for the roughly 600 miles south to New Orleans should be safe. Upstream, houses, roads and fields should begin to resurface above the new lakes and inland seas covering parts of nine states inundated by the Mississippi, the Missouri and tributary rivers, streams and creeks that nobody outside the immediate area had ever heard of before last week.

If. But. Only.

If . . . sunshine finally puts an end to the rains that have been lashing the upper Midwest and swelling the rivers for the past three months, in amounts often difficult to believe (an inch in only six minutes last week at Papillion, Nebraska). Otherwise the crest could be even higher than predicted; continued rain caused forecasts of the expected maximum height at St. Louis to be raised a full foot within two days late last week. On Saturday, thunderstorms dropped an additional 5 in. of rain on central Iowa. A dangerous second crest could chase the big one down the Mississippi, and secondary rivers could burst their banks in areas so far spared. That happened last Thursday night in Fargo, North Dakota. The Red River, engorged by a daylong deluge, rose 4 ft. in six hours, rampaging into town and causing sewage to back up into homes and Dakota Hospital.

Another if: more levees, soaked and pounded by rushing waters for weeks, could give way as the crest approaches or even after it passes. Early last Friday morning the Missouri River poured over the top of a railroad embankment being used as a levee in St. Charles County, Missouri, northwest of St. Louis. Its waters mingled with those swirling south from the Mississippi 20 miles sooner than usual, forcing several hundred people to join the 7,000 who had already evacuated. Then, Friday night, the Mississippi broke though a sand levee at West Quincy, Missouri, forcing closing of the Bayview Bridge about a quarter-mile away -- the last span that was open over a 200-mile stretch of the river where it flows between Missouri and Illinois. The bridge will be closed for weeks, whatever happens, an indication that worse may yet come before the worst is over.

But . . . even with few or no additions, the Great Flood of '93 is already one of the all-time monsters. It might go down as the worst of all in the U.S. by many measures: height of flood crest, area inundated (close to 17,000 sq. mi., vs. 12,700 in the awesome flood of 1937 along many of the same rivers) and property damage. Government estimates skyrocketed in little more than a week from $500 million to as much as $8 billion, and the final tally might be higher still.