Twisting Off the Hook

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The most telling pro-MFN argument is that trade threats are of no use in making the leaders of China grant more political liberty -- especially now. The country is going through a bumpy transition from a managed to a market economy: inflation has hit an annual rate of more than 20% in big cities, and unemployment is growing as the government shuts down inefficient state industries. Scattered worker protests and strikes have struck fear in Beijing that the authorities could lose control. A leadership succession struggle cannot be long postponed: top boss Deng Xiaoping is approaching his 90th birthday and ailing. In such an atmosphere, Beijing's chiefs will do anything they think necessary to keep a lid on disorder, MFN or no MFN.

Human-rights organizations, however, are leaning hard on Clinton to be tough. They point to China's continued export of goods made with prison labor: under Clinton's own Executive Order, Beijing must stop that to retain MFN. Harry Wu, a former Chinese political prisoner, showed Congress tapes of prisoners at forced labor that he had secretly filmed on a five-week trip this year. Says Wu: "Fifty percent of Chinese rubber products come from chemical factories that employ forced labor." Human Rights Watch/Asia says latex gloves used by doctors were exported as recently as last January only after being inspected in Beijing's Prison No. 2. One prisoner tried to slip a note into a glove but was reported by other inmates and then beaten by guards with electric batons -- not an unusual occurrence in that lockup.

Whatever Clinton decides is not likely to be overturned by Congress, where opponents could not muster the two-thirds votes needed to override a presidential veto if legislators forced a showdown. But Clinton will take a political roasting no matter what he does. Administration officials say he has come to see the wisdom of extending MFN and delinking it from human rights, which he could promote better by diplomatic means. But politically he cannot afford to take such a forthright stand yet. Instead, the President seems to be aiming for the now familiar sort of compromise that pleases no one and accomplishes little.