Dealmaker's Downfall

He seemed to have made a difficult transition from cog in the legendary Chicago Democratic machine to politician of the '90s. Not the blow-dried telegenic kind; burly, raspy-voiced Dan Rostenkowski remained a backroom dealmaker to the bitter end. He won vast respect as the Congressman who could + massage the tough bills -- tax reform, maybe health care -- into literally passable form. But, says Chicago political columnist Steve Neal, "he was caught in a sort of time warp," and he is under investigation for allegedly taking perks that were common in the Chicago wards of the 1950s, and even in Congress when he arrived there 35 years ago, but are now forbidden. And even though he angrily insists he is innocent, the session of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee held last Thursday could easily be the last that Rostenkowski presides over as chairman.

Over the holiday weekend, Rostenkowski mulled a dismal choice. He could take a deal offered by U.S. Attorney Eric Holder: plead guilty to at least one felony count, and probably accept a short prison term. Or he could let himself be indicted on 10 to 15 counts, charging fraudulent use of his office expense accounts for personal gain, and face trial. He might then escape prison altogether -- or draw a sentence as long as three to four years for each count on which he might be convicted.

Either way, Rostenkowski would have to give up the Ways and Means chairmanship. That would be part of any plea bargain, and if he is indicted, it would be required by the rules of the House Democratic Caucus. Technically, if he is tried and acquitted, he could resume the chairmanship some years down the road. It seems likely, though, that Rostenkowski will resign even as an ordinary member of Congress, whether he cops a plea or has to start preparing, at the age of 66, for an almost certainly long and exhausting trial.

Fellow House Democrats are so sure of the departure of Rosty (everybody calls him either that or Danny) that they have already settled on his successor. The new chairman will be Florida Democrat Sam Gibbons, 74, an affable and experienced veteran of 31 years on Ways and Means but hardly Rosty's equal as a coalition builder or horse trader. Though Gibbons insists he is a leader, he concedes he has not steeped himself in the arcana of taxation to the extent Rostenkowski has; Gibbons' primary interest has been trade. Some Democrats talked of choosing a younger and more dynamic chairman for Ways and Means, but the move collapsed after Gibbons invoked the nearly sacred rules of seniority.

Commentators have judged Rosty's downfall to be possibly fatal for the health-reform plan. That seems exaggerated: Rostenkowski acknowledged that any final law would resemble whatever bill emerges from the Senate Finance . Committee more closely than the one Ways and Means is shaping. Still, Rosty's presence will be missed. His wheeling and dealing might have been as sorely needed to pass Clinton's future legislation as it was last year to get the President's deficit-reduction plan enacted.