The Political Interest: Circling the White House

Now let us finish the job." Reduced to a bumper sticker, that's what the Republicans think they will be offering in 1996. And if the new, G.O.P.-controlled Congress can deliver the change its leaders promise, voters may well be ready for a Republican President. But who? The list of those who think they can take Bill Clinton may grow to phone-book size, but here's a morning line on the early contenders:

The Insider-Reformers: After grousing for years about gridlock, the public wants Congress to produce the reform Clinton hasn't. "For once," says former Republican National Committee chairman Rich Bond, who is much in demand as a strategist by almost all the wannabes, "something positive may come from the Hill. If it does, Bob Dole will be credited for much of it." While many of the potential candidates can raise modest amounts of money, Dole is one of the few who can garner the $20 million necessary to take him through the early primaries without mortgaging his house. His failures in 1980 and 1988 may actually help. Ronald Reagan and George Bush showed that Republican voters like to reward candidates who have the gumption to run again after losing previous efforts. Dole's acerbic tongue has earned him a reputation for being mean-spirited, but his support for the less fortunate is genuine. During a 1988 Republican debate, when his competitors swiped at AIDS victims for having weak values, Dole replied simply, "There's something called compassion."

The tension between Dole and one of his more formidable prospective rivals, Senator Phil Gramm, is surfacing already. Dole believes "government does a lot of good things." Gramm warns that Republicans must be "truer to our less-government philosophy than in the past." Dole has been notably conciliatory toward Clinton; Gramm rejects compromise: "Why should we go halfway in the wrong direction?" he asks.

The substantive divide may be even greater than the stylistic one. Gramm and Newt Gingrich, who may run for President even though he's just won the House speakership, will push the House Republicans' "Contract with America," which has a heavy emphasis on supply-side economics. Dole disdained Reaganomics and seems equally unenthusiastic about the contract. "If ((its central features)) come to the Senate," he said last week, "I assume we'd end up voting on them." As for the contract's insistence that the budget can be balanced in five years even if taxes are cut and defense spending is increased, Dole diplomatically says, "It would be difficult."

Like Dole, Gramm is an ace organizer. He already has $6 million on hand from his last run for the Senate in Texas. But he could end up like John Connally in 1980: great lines, a lot of money, no votes. Count Dole as the favorite, but watch for the fight inside as the battle to define responsible reform takes shape.