The Seeds of Civil War

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The Hawks' demonstration inflamed Arafat's opponents in Gaza. "This show of muscle was a big mistake," said Mansour Shawa, president of the charitable Benevolent Society for the Gaza Strip. "It just provoked a lot of people." By aligning himself with a factional militia, critics said, the chairman had undercut his claim to be a national leader. "He is going back to acting like the head of a gang," said Ghazi Abu Jayyab, an activist in the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Bloody Friday also tainted the image of the Authority's 9,000-member Gaza Strip security force. "The uncommitted, nonpolitical man in the street is now hostile to the police," said Akram Ibrahim, a Gaza cabdriver and former Fatah activist.

Most observers do not expect the Hamas leadership to provoke civil war deliberately, at least not now. Instead of aiming its fire at Arafat's forces, Hamas is expected to zero in on Israeli targets. During noon prayers at the Palestine Mosque last Friday, Sheik Said Siam vowed, "Our weapons will not accept any address except the chests of the Zionist enemy." Since Bloody Friday, there have been seven attacks or attempted attacks on Israeli soldiers and settlers in the Gaza Strip.

Whether the Hamas leadership speaks for the most radical elements in the organization, however, remains a question. "The militant, hard-line trend is dominant now, and the prevailing notion that Mr. Arafat is in deep trouble pushes them forward," said Abu-Amr. Referring to the Oct. 19 suicide bombing of a Tel Aviv bus that killed 22 people, a Hamas leader added, "Have no doubt, some people are ready to imitate what happened in Tel Aviv in the center of Arafat's Authority." Civil war could also be provoked by Arafat's security forces, which include men who believe that now is the time to finish off Hamas.

Cooler heads in Hamas' ranks have begun to talk about disavowing internecine violence in the Gaza Strip in return for being allowed a role in the Authority. Would Arafat go along? Before Bloody Friday, the chairman had appointed a Hamas member to serve on the Muslim religious courts in the West Bank, but in the wake of the fracas, he may no longer be interested in sharing power at any level.

An improvement in the sad economic shape of the Gaza Strip would help limit the appeal of Hamas -- which is why Palestinian officials, backed by the U.S. and Israel, will lobby international donors this week in Brussels to give the Palestinian Authority significant funding. Foreign aid is especially important now, since, as Khaled Abdul-Shafi, a Gaza economist, notes, "what happened last Friday reduces the chances of private investment to zero."

While some Israeli commentators see the conflict in the Gaza Strip as the beginning of the end for Hamas and other fundamentalist radicals, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin's government is alarmed by the developments. "Last Friday opened Israeli minds to how fragile the whole peace process is," said Uri Dromi, director of the Government Press Office. "And Rabin is also invested in this. What can he tell the Israeli people? That he was wrong to make peace with Arafat?"