Who Will Be First Among Us?

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One day, John Paul lunched at the Vatican with a bishop from Senegal. "In Africa," the bishop said, "people are talking a lot about your succession. After you, they say there will be a black Pope." John Paul said, "You seem very well informed." To which the bishop replied, "Yes, I read it in Nostradamus!" The Pope laughed.

As John Paul approaches the twilight of his papacy, the question arises -- who will be the next Pope? For more than 450 years before Karol Wojtyla's elevation, the papacy was held by Italians. And when the present Polish experiment is over, some Vatican insiders insist that the Holy See will be returned to its traditional caretakers. "You can bet your last dollar that the next Pope will be one of ours," said one up-and-coming Roman prelate. "I don't know who it will be, but he'll be Italian."

Among the Italians, the best-known candidate is Carlo Maria Martini. As the Archbishop of Milan, Europe's largest archdiocese, Martini, 67, is promoted by moderate Catholics as the single most papabile prince of the Roman Catholic Church. Suave, brilliant, cosmopolitan, he hews closely to John Paul's dogma but is reputed to harbor less conservative inclinations. Some are convinced Martini could spur reform on issues such as celibacy and women priests. On contraception, he once said, "I believe the Church's teaching has not been expressed so well . . . I'm confident we will find some formula to state things better, so that the problem is better understood and more adapted to reality." Martini is an eminent New Testament scholar who reads or speaks 11 languages and has written nearly 50 books.

Martini, however, is a Jesuit, and the conservative College of Cardinals is not likely to look kindly upon even a moderate member of an order with a reputation for liberalism. And Vatican watchers never tire of invoking this aphorism: "He who goes into the conclave the next Pope, comes out a Cardinal." Martini has done everything to discourage discussion of his chances of succession -- including voicing his desire to be buried in the Holy Land. Implicit in that is the fact that Popes are buried in Rome.

Other possible Italian candidates include Silvano Piovanelli, 70, of Florence, and Pio Cardinal Laghi, 72, who heads the Congregation for Catholic Education. Both have conservative credentials. And then there is Giacomo Biffi, 66, the Archbishop of Bologna. Biffi, for whom John Paul reportedly has a soft spot, likes to bait Italy's liberal press with his diatribes against gays, feminists, AIDS victims, unwed mothers and pro-choice activists. He has led a campaign to abolish the music of Mozart and Schubert from the Mass, and he once likened ordaining women as priests to celebrating Communion with Coca- Cola. Says he: "Defending the truth as it has been revealed by God is the most elementary and necessary act of charity toward others."