BOMBS AND BLUSTER

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This time, they said, they would put an end to vacillation and to pinprick bombing. "What we must do today," Prime Minister John Major told the 16-nation emergency conference on Bosnia in London last week, "is spell out in unmistakable terms the consequences of further attacks" by Bosnian Serbs on U.N.-declared "safe areas." "We must mean what we say and be determined to carry out what we say."

Right. But what did they say? And what did they mean? At the end of eight hours of discussion among foreign and defense ministers, British Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind emerged to deliver the official summary of the meeting. He issued the Serbs a warning, but an ambiguous one, declaring that any attack on Gorazde, the last remaining safe area in eastern Bosnia, "would be met with a substantial and decisive response." Precisely what that response would be was not spelled out. The U.S. had gone into the meeting calling for sweeping air attacks on the Serbs. France favored sending more peacekeepers to Gorazde. As host of the conference, Rifkind reported that "there was strong support for the use of air power" but there was also concern about "the serious risks involved in this course of action." He went on to "emphasize that the U.N. must not go to war but needs to support realistic and effective deterrents."

Taking his turn on the podium, U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher agreed that the policy was to deter the Serbs. But he insisted that an attack on Gorazde would be met with decisive air strikes on Serb forces and supply lines. "Any air campaign will include significant attacks on significant targets," he said. nato already has plans for such air raids, ranging from close support of troops on the ground to a "regional" bombing campaign, although the relevant U.N. resolution authorizes strikes only in and around a safe area. It was still unclear just who would make the decision to launch those strikes. At one point Christopher said, "The people of Bosnia simply cannot afford any more empty threats," thereby suggesting, perhaps unwittingly, that the many previous challenges to the Serbs had been bluffs.

The details of the policy will have to be spelled out soon. As the ministers sat down in London, one safe area -- Srebrenica -- had already fallen and another -- Zepa -- was about to fall. Gorazde was surrounded, under artillery fire. If the Serb commander, General Ratko Mladic, presses ahead with his assault, the U.N. and NATO will then be pledged to strike.

Bosnian Prime Minister Haris Silajdzic was skeptical. "They always produce half-measures," he said, referring to the Western allies. The ultimatum to the Serbs to keep their hands off Gorazde, he said, was a "green light" for them to attack elsewhere. He predicted the Serbs would take the pressure off the eastern enclave but keep squeezing the capital, Sarajevo, and possibly try to capture Bihac, the last government outpost in the northwest.