SILENCE OF THE GUNS

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Two weeks ago, the Serb, Croat and Bosnian foreign ministers agreed to peace "principles" that call for two ethnic "entities" inside Bosnia. The Serb share would be 49% of the territory, and the federation of Bosnian Muslims and Croats would get 51%. This split has been viewed by Pentagon analysts as unworkable because the Bosnian Serbs were reported to hold 70% of Bosnia's land. But the tide of war has recently been going so badly for the Serbs that the previous estimate is now way off.

Last week CIA and Defense Department experts analyzed new reconnaissance photos from satellites and spy planes and concluded that the Bosnian Serbs control only about 55% of the country, while the Muslims and Croats have 45%. As the Bosnian government offensive continues, the actual holdings may come very close to what has been agreed upon. The major outstanding territorial issues could be reduced to Sarajevo, eastern Slovenia and Gorazde.

If the disengagement around Sarajevo goes according to plan, the Serb and Bosnian government generals are scheduled to meet this week with U.N. military commanders to discuss extending the cease-fire to all of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It might take some doing to persuade the Bosnians to agree to that because of their latest successes on the battlefield. But Bosnian government officials last week began a series of television appearances to urge a move away from fighting to peacemaking.

Though there were hopeful signs, the international mediators of the Contact Group--the U.S., Britain, France, Germany and Russia--are not predicting that progress will be easy. The agreement on principles two weeks ago presents as many questions as it answers: What kind of constitutional arrangement can create one country that contains both a Serb republic and a Bosnian-Croatian federation?

France and its new President Jacques Chirac show no overt indications of pique at Washington's sudden front-running role. In fact, officials in Paris take some credit for the development, pointing out that it was Chirac who pushed for a well-armed Rapid Reaction Force and urged NATO to show its muscle. "I am delighted," said Chirac, "that the Americans have become strongly involved for the past few weeks." The British were solidly behind air strikes until, as Defense Minister Michael Portillo said, "the threat to Sarajevo is lifted." Privately, London had been asking Washington to broker a local cease-fire around the Bosnian capital. Now that it is in place, Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind hopes for, if not steady progress, then at least "three steps forward and one step back."

With a cease-fire in prospect for the whole country, the allies have begun to rethink how many troops will be needed to police an actual peace agreement. Last week Defense Secretary Perry scaled back previous Pentagon estimates. He said the so-called NATO Implementation Force may need only 50,000 rather than 70,000 on the ground, of whom 15,000, not 25,000, would be American. French Defense Minister Millon is to arrive in Washington this week to begin talks on how to provide political direction to the soldiers of the NATO peacekeeping force. France is leaning toward some form of U.N. operation, while the U.S. is determined to keep it entirely under NATO command.