DEMOCRACY IN A WHIRL

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NO ONE CAN SAY THAT RUSSIANS will lack for choice when they go to the polls this Sunday to elect a new national parliament. Establishment figures like Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin are running, but so too is Dzhuna Davitashvili, an extrasensory healer formerly employed by aging Politburo members. Both the Communist Party, a remnant of the Soviet monolith, and the Beer Lover's Party have fielded candidates. All together 5,000 candidates are vying for the 450 seats of the State Duma, the lower house of the country's two-tier Federal Assembly. It would be no exaggeration to say Russia is experiencing an explosion of democracy, although it is not in a style that most Westerners would recognize.

Notwithstanding the curiosities of the campaign, a serious issue lies at its heart. The election has essentially become a vote of confidence on President Boris Yeltsin's economic reforms and their high social cost. "This is the ideal moment for those who want to turn back the clock," says Moscow political commentator Otto Latsis. "The price has been paid for reform, but the average person will not see the results for several more years."

A great shift in the vote to opponents of Kremlin economic policies, such as the communists or the nationalists, could mark the beginning of the end of the reformist cycle that started after Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in 1985. The powers of the parliament have been so watered down in the new constitution that it is virtually impossible for Deputies to remove Yeltsin from office. But a solid Yeltsin opposition with a majority in the new parliament could obstruct government-reform policies. The result would be a return to the debilitating power struggle that triggered Yeltsin's dramatic 1993 showdown with the old parliament.

There is a good chance, however, that such a coalition will not emerge and that the new parliament will prove just as fractious and querulous as the old one. The communists have consistently held the lead in public-opinion polls, but they are still favored by no more than 20% of the voters. If as many as 10 political groups manage to break the 5% barrier to get into parliament, the communists would have to do some major horse trading with projected winners like Women of Russia and the Agrarian Party to create an anti-Yeltsin alliance.

Whatever the outcome of the parliamentary elections, the decisive confrontation between what Latsis calls "the powers that be and the forces of revenge" will really come in June 1996, when Russians are scheduled to vote for a new President. On the mend after his second hospital stay for heart troubles in just over three months, Yeltsin has not ruled out a re-election bid, and will say nothing about his plans until after the new parliament is elected. Nevertheless, every Russian knows that the current campaign is a dress rehearsal for next year's vote. At least five candidates from Russia's leading parties are considered strong presidential contenders. Here are the men who, after the ballots are tallied, will probably emerge as key combatants in the battle for the Kremlin.

VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN Holding the Roof On