HOW GRAMM COULD DO IT

WITH LESS THAN A MONTH TO GO BEfore the Iowa caucuses, Phil Gramm knows this is no time to be timid. So when much of the country praised Bob Dole recently for breaking a legislative logjam and reopening the Federal Government, Gramm, alone among his rivals, rushed a TV spot onto the air that claimed the Senate leader had "caved in" on a balanced budget. Gramm's frontal attack was a bold gamble that Dole's statesmanship, while it wins praise with Americans generally, might bomb with G.O.P. conservatives in the first big presidential contest next month.

Judging from the 550 people who showed up at a roller rink in tiny Eldridge, Iowa, to eat fried chicken and meet the candidate last Thursday, Gramm's bet may be a smart one. The overflow crowd, coming at the beginning of a two-day bus tour around the state, caught Gramm's organizers off guard. Extra tables had to be brought in from the local fire department and satellite parking arranged a quarter mile away. "Is this heaven?" wondered a pleased Gramm as he surveyed the gathering. To a Dole operative the next morning, it sounded more like hell. Informed of the attendance figures, she said softly, "Wow, In a roller rink?"

While some of his rivals whisper about Dole's age or electability, Gramm challenges Dole head on, blasting him as too willing to compromise on health care, welfare, abortion and tax cuts. As long as the race can be defined as a referendum on red ink, Gramm believes he will profit and Dole will suffer. "It's becoming clear to American voters that if they want a balanced budget, they are going to have to elect a President who is committed to it," he told TIME. Late last week, Gramm struck again: after Bill Clinton announced in his Thursday press conference that he had made a "reality check" call to Dole about the budget talks, Gramm released a statement urging Dole to "stop conducting back-channel budget negotiations with Bill Clinton from the campaign trail."

Dole's reputation as a compromiser has made it easier for Gramm to form a coalition out of a disparate array of conservatives, including antiabortionists, gun owners, antipornography crusaders, tax protesters, working women, stay-at-home moms, even some fathers'-rights activists. At every stop, Gramm emphasizes his zeal to balance the budget, cut taxes on families, end welfare benefits to people with children born out of wedlock and appoint judges who "will interpret not reinvent the Constitution." His flat-tax proposal, which retains the charitable-contribution deduction, is carefully designed to attract check-writing churchgoers, and it's a message he drives home with ads on 12 Christian stations across the state.