CAMPAIGN '96: KNOCK 'EM FLAT

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Dole waited a long time before he fought back; for one thing, since the whole Forbes phenomenon was hurting his opponents more, he hoped they would fight off the upstart themselves and let him remain above the fray. But money troubles in the Gramm and Alexander camps--though both have raised millions, their cash on hand is sometimes precarious--prevented them from making sustained counterstrikes, and so it fell to Dole. His campaign staff argued for a while about how and when to fight back and decided to aim a broadside at Forbes (tag line: Untested leadership. Risky ideas) just before the Iowa debate on Jan. 13, which may have been what inspired the others to go after Forbes instead of the front runner. "Dole's people were absolutely delighted with the debate," explains Craig Fuller, former campaign manager for Pete Wilson. "Forbes is helping Dole a lot by establishing a glass ceiling: Forbes and everybody else can see Dole, but they can't break through to touch him." The next morning the Des Moines Register proclaimed Dole the winner.

This has left the other candidates fuming. "The great, huge perversion of all of this," says Alexander campaign media adviser Mike Murphy, "is that [Forbes] got in to stop Dole, but the only effect he's having is to help him. In exchange for helping Dole, he's going to get to be the Secretary of Rich Clueless Guys." Gramm shares Alexander's dilemma, but he has more to lose. Gramm cannot rely on Dole to target Forbes much longer, since the Dole camp wants only to wound Forbes, not kill him off. That means Gramm will have to attack Forbes on the air if he hopes to slip past him in the polls. In Dole's dreams, Gramm comes in second in Iowa and Forbes places second in New Hampshire, so it does not boil down to a two-man race too early. Ideally, by the time Forbes' weaknesses have been highlighted, it would be too late for anyone else to replace him as Dole's main rival.

Forbes has the most distinctive campaign style of anyone in the field, which is to say none. It is all his handlers can do to get him to unclasp his hands. There's not a chance he'll loosen his tie. He is devoutly unglib, though a fluid speaker who uses no notes. However remote he may seem from their life and experiences, people say he seems honest and authentic, someone who doesn't stare over your shoulder when he's talking to see who has come into the room. "You ask him a question, and he doesn't build you a watch, he answers it," says Dr. Charles Kalil, 82, a semiretired Phoenix, Arizona, physician. "It's refreshing to talk to a politician who doesn't hem and haw and has the facts."

Though he may seem like a political neophyte, Forbes actually got his start early, when he and his Bedminster, New Jersey, neighbor Christie Todd (now the Governor of his home state) were chosen to present dolls to Pat Nixon for Tricia and Julie during the 1952 campaign. He used to hold mock elections for his stuffed animals, and could rattle off by heart the state voting patterns county by county.