GERRY ADAMS UNDER THE GUN

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But it may not be as simple as that. The I.R.A. agreed to the first cease-fire because Adams, with help from the Irish government and John Hume, the leader of Northern Ireland's Social Democratic and Labour Party, convinced the I.R.A. that political negotiations could achieve results. Just what the I.R.A. is thinking now and what influence Adams has is a puzzle. A senior White House official says, "The key question is, What is Adams' current relationship with the I.R.A.? No one knows that."

Adams claims the I.R.A. still trusts his judgment. Some sources with close contacts to the I.R.A. argue that he was deliberately kept in the dark about the bombings so that he could claim ignorance and remain the acceptable face of Irish republicanism. For the moment, Adams is still an important--and perhaps indispensable--part of the peace process. Says Alex Attwood, a Belfast city councilor representing a ward in Roman Catholic West Belfast: "Adams and his first- line managers are the best and the brightest. People may not like them, but they need to be sustained if we are going to secure peace."

Still, Adams has been stung by the fierce backlash from the bomb. The Irish and British governments have banned all high-level contacts with him and Sinn Fein until the cease-fire is restored. The Americans have not gone that far, but they will soon have to face a tough decision if Adams applies for a visa to visit the U.S. Clinton's decision to grant Adams his first visa, in February 1994, was an enormous step in giving him international stature. The Administration says it will base its decision on the results of Adams' efforts to restart the peace process.

Adams is not the only one working at that task, of course. The bomb did jolt the parties out of their negotiating lethargy. In recent days Dublin and London have been working together closely--and vigorously--to sort out the torrent of complicated proposals for conferences, referendums, elections and talks that have come from all sides. Everyone seems to have a Northern Ireland peace plan. British Prime Minister John Major and Irish Prime Minister John Bruton hope to meet next week to propose a new schedule for getting talks under way. Whether Sinn Fein and Adams will be included depends very much on the I.R.A. Some sources in Belfast were suggesting that the Docklands bombing was a one-off operation to express dissatisfaction with the slow pace of negotiations, but last week another I.R.A. bomb was discovered in the West End of London. It was much smaller than the Docklands device and was disarmed by security forces before it could explode.

If more bombs do go off in Britain--or if sectarian killings resume in Northern Ireland--it will be very difficult to see the way forward to a permanent settlement. Yet the mood in Northern Ireland has clearly shifted toward peace. "There has been a sea change here," insists Denis Faul, a Catholic priest who was involved in ending the I.R.A. hunger strikes in 1981. "Three years ago we would have been slagging each other off over a bombing like the one in London. But now everyone is talking about maintaining the peace. The days of the paramilitaries are numbered. No one wants to go back to war."