CHINA: WAKING UP TO THE NEXT SUPERPOWER

(5 of 7)

Last year Joseph Nye, who has since retired as Assistant Secretary of Defense, warned, "If you treat China as an enemy, China will become an enemy." A containment policy such as the one the U.S. used to hem in Moscow, says Perry, "could actually undermine our security, because a China that feels encircled is quite unlikely to cooperate on vital U.S. security interests. Containment could create those security problems. It could push China to accelerate its defense modernization, which would contribute to a regional arms race, increasing the likelihood of military conflict in hot spots like Taiwan, the Spratly Islands, the Korean peninsula."

Containment could also spark a trade war, in which the U.S. and China might close their markets to each other, with ripples spreading to other countries in the Pacific. Equally important, a hard-line policy toward Beijing would put stress on U.S. alliances in the region. "Not a single friend and ally would join us in such a strategy," suggests a ranking Administration official. "We'd be all alone, and that would cause severe strains with Japan, South Korea, Australia and in Southeast Asia." Singapore Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew, an astute analyst of the region, takes the point a step further: "The last thing Asia wants is containment. First, it will not succeed. Second, you will have absolutely no influence on how China and its attitudes develop: it will be hostile and xenophobic to the West, and that's no good for us." Says Levin: "Dealing with China as an enemy strengthens the know-nothings in Beijing and means that the pragmatists are no longer willing to carry America's water."

For engagement to work, however, the U.S. must maintain its military presence in Asia. The U.S. Pacific Command comprises 200 ships, 2,000 aircraft and 300,000 soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines, of whom 100,000 are "forward deployed" in South Korea, Japan and at sea. As long as there is a danger of war on the Korean peninsula, a drawdown of U.S. forces is unlikely; in the meantime, they help stabilize the entire region. The presence of 47,000 U.S. troops in Japan, for example, reassures not only Tokyo, which is carefully monitoring its great neighbor's rise to power, but even China, which along with other Asian countries is worried about Japan's rearming. "We are concerned about what kind of China will emerge," says Singapore's Lee. "The problem is of such gigantic size that it is not solvable in the Asian context alone. It is balanced only if the Americans are here, along with Japan. America alone is credible for 10, maybe 15 years, but not beyond."

Right now, the key test case for America's China policy is Taiwan. On March 23, it will hold a presidential vote--the first time in the 4,000 years of Chinese history that a leader will be chosen in a free election. The winner is likely to be Lee Teng-hui, the current President, who has infuriated Beijing by seeking greater international recognition for Taiwan. Beijing insists that the island is part of China and eventually it will be reintegrated. Lee, at least officially, accepts the objective of reunification, although Beijing and his political opponents at home have been questioning his sincerity.