CHINA: WAKING UP TO THE NEXT SUPERPOWER

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For now, war almost certainly is not on Beijing's mind. According to one Chinese official, "While we have contingency plans on Taiwan, we do not intend to invade Taiwan." As matters stand, the likely scenario is that Taiwan will have its election this Saturday; Lee will win and perhaps declare his commitment to reunification more explicitly, thereby allowing China to back off. Even Beijing agrees that reunification will not take place until some time in the future, when the societies on the two shores of the strait are more closely synchronized. The immediate crisis will pass, and the two sides will not have irreparably antagonized each other. But how will they fare at resolving the next conflict when it comes along, as it surely will? Comprehensive engagement may still be the right path, but it would yield better results if both sides also engaged in more mutual comprehension.

--With reporting by Lewis M. Simons and Mark Thompson/Washington