CAMPAIGN '96 RUSSIA: YELTSIN'S SECRET REPORT ON HOW TO CALL OFF THE VOTE

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THERE ARE TWO WAYS BORIS YELTSIN CAN PREVENT THE Communist Party leader Gennadi Zyuganov from becoming President: by defeating him in the election or by making sure the election doesn't happen in the first place. Given the communists' strength and Yeltsin's deep unpopularity, there is a chance that he may choose the second method.

Talk of postponement is already in the air. Last month the communist-dominated Duma voted to abrogate the 1991 agreement by which the former Soviet Union had been dissolved. Though the measure carried no legal weight, an infuriated Yeltsin denounced it as "scandalous" and charged that the deputies had "destroyed the foundation on which they were sitting." The import of this ominous but vague outburst was soon made clear by a group of regional leaders in the upper house of parliament who support Yeltsin. Responding to the Duma's action, they proposed that the election be postponed for at least two years. As explained by Vladimir Khubiyev, president of a North Caucasian ethnic republic within Russia, the need is "to discard all these elections and gradually move forward." Konstantin Titov, the regional governor of Samara, said, "Either you cancel your decision, or we cancel the June 16 elections."

The theme has come up elsewhere. In remarks to Russian newspapers, Yeltsin's chief of staff has also raised the possibility that the elections would be called off. The U.S. is confident the elections will be held, but Secretary of State Warren Christopher sought reassurance when he met with Russian officials last week in Moscow. "Yeltsin is not going to give up power," says a senior Russian defense analyst. "His team will do everything it can to hold on to the Kremlin." How could the vote be prevented? Sources have told Time that top commanders of Yeltsin's powerful Security Service have prepared "an analytical report" for their boss that outlines the pretexts under which he might do so. First, he could cite the long-discussed confederation treaties with Kazakhstan and Belarus, whose arrangements would supersede the current Russian constitution. In this context, the Duma's effort to reconstitute the U.S.S.R. could be seen not as a threat but as an opportunity. In fact, this week Belarus and Russia are signing a treaty as a step toward integration. The report reminds Yeltsin that if reunification went far enough, he could claim that new elections were necessary for all branches of government. The presidential elections could then be delayed until the other voting took place.

Another strategy the report discusses is to actually allow the war in Chechnya to worsen. When things became bad enough, as the report puts it, Yeltsin could declare "an emergency concentration of power in the hands of the President for the sake of restoring constitutional order." There is no provision in the Russian constitution that allows for canceling elections because of a state of emergency. However, the rules for imposing a state of emergency do empower the President to ban meetings and mass rallies and to suspend political parties. Holding elections under such restrictions would be almost impossible.