CAMPAIGN '96: LOOK WHO'S TALKING

Bob Dole's game plan sounded too good to be true, and it was. After he clinched the Republican nomination in March, Dole was supposed to return to his promontory on Capitol Hill where, as a modern-day, legislative Zeus, he would hurl bill after bill down Pennsylvania Avenue at a cowering Bill Clinton, who would either have to sign on to the Republican agenda or become a veto-happy obstructionist. By convention time, voters would know who was boss.

Never mind that now. Throughout last week, while Clinton summitteered from Tokyo to Moscow, Senate Democrats trapped Dole into procedural back alleys that made him look ineffective at best and hard-hearted at worst. First he was forced to pull back an immigration-reform bill when minority leader Tom Daschle tacked on an amendment that would raise the minimum wage by 90'. Then, just as Dole was preparing to back a token boost in the wage scale, 20 House Republicans bid him up to a full dollar. Dole suddenly seemed behind the curve, a scrooge in springtime. And then, on Thursday, five Republicans abandoned Dole when he tried (and failed) to attach a plan for medical savings accounts to a bill extending health-care benefits to employees who change jobs.

No one has ever tried to run the Senate and unseat a Democrat in the White House. Dole's advisers remain deeply divided over the wisdom of doing that, as well as over many other issues. The main one is whether to cut a budget-balancing deal with Bill Clinton next month or make it the centerpiece of the fall campaign. At a meeting last week, campaign manager Scott Reed and Republican National Committee chairman Haley Barbour argued forcefully to forgo any agreement with Clinton this year and urged Republicans to campaign hard against the President's spending habits in the fall. Top aides to budget-committee chairmen John Kasich and Pete Domenici argued for a deal, a position believed to be shared by Dole's top legislative aide, Sheila Burke. Some people think this kind of negotiation is a waste of time. Conservative guru William Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard, said in an editorial last week that Dole is "likely to lose" this fall and said Republicans "must not defer" to him if it means risking G.O.P. control of Congress.

For now, Dole has hoped to stay above the fray and take the battle to Clinton. He asked his aides two weeks ago to prepare a series of speeches on foreign policy, economics, crime and values that make clear where he differs from the incumbent President. The first came last Friday, when Dole referred to Clinton 22 times, lambasting him for his "liberal appointments" to the federal bench and promising to "appoint judges who respect the rule of law," who "understand that society is not to blame for crime, criminals are."