RUSSIA'96: THE PEOPLE CHOOSE

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First, though, some vital preliminary work was undertaken. "Before we could make rational arguments, especially about the fear of communism," explains Satarov, "we had to deal with emotions." Yeltsin's approval rating was barely 5% in January. "We needed to awaken the lion by ending the President's invisibility," says Satarov. "We had to present him as a vigorous, active leader who has got the message and is trying his best." So Yeltsin, who at 65 has lived eight years longer than the average Russian male, went on a strict diet, lost 25 lbs., cut his intake of vodka and started making public appearances on a daily basis. The results were heartening. Six months ago, Yeltsin's negative ratings hovered around 80%. Today they're under 50%--enough to kill an American politician but good news for a candidate fighting to make a two-man run-off. "In January," says a Yeltsin aide, "the focus groups were awful. Four of the five top adjectives used to describe the President were 'drunk,' 'unhealthy,' 'can't be trusted' and 'not smart.' The only positive was 'experience.' Now only 'not smart' persists, and we can't change that." (Yes, Russian campaigns now use focus groups.)

After the image tune-up, Yeltsin tried for a while to defend his record, and the indexes of progress he listed were accurate: lower inflation, significant hard-currency reserves, a generally more open, demand-driven economy. When citing his achievements did not improve his standing, Yeltsin argued that the corner has been turned on austerity. "The most difficult period is over," he said as recently as last month. "We have survived. Don't lose hope." Each time he used that line, he was booed.

So Yeltsin turned to addressing some problems head on--by blaming others for them. In Russia especially, this is a traditional dodge. Since the czar is always right, the argument goes, any difficulties that arise are the result of unscrupulous or stupid subordinates who undermine him. Take, for example, the failure of the government to pay its civil servants for months at a time. A $10 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund has helped Yeltsin clean up some of the arrears, but the issue remains contentious. The blame for this shameful performance, the President zestily explains in a stump-speech staple, rests with his underlings.

On May Day in Moscow this year, Yeltsin urged trade unionists to help him "keep an eye" on the regional officials who had not yet distributed the funds he insisted had already been sent to them. In Yaroslavl two days later, he confidently announced nonpayment was not a problem in the surrounding province. "The governor is standing right here," Yeltsin said, "and he assures me the salaries have been paid." When the crowd cried, "No, no!"--an assessment later confirmed in several interviews--he ignored it.