CONVENTION '96: SITTING PRETTY

(5 of 5)

Both American political parties have survived long term by accommodating reality. You don't hear Dole repeating his gaffe of a few months ago, reminding voters that he opposed Medicare back in 1965. Republicans have made their peace with Social Security, the Civil Rights Act, Medicare and so on. Any attempts to prune or reform these programs, however justifiable, are urgently identified as efforts to "save" them. Similarly, Clinton won election, and seems to be winning re-election, by leading his party's adjustment to the political landscape created by Reagan. Republicans have the delicate challenge of arguing simultaneously that Clinton has stolen the G.O.P. agenda and that he is a dangerous left-winger. Both views are exaggerations, and they are obviously incompatible.

6. "BOB DOLE"

These two words are shorthand for the proposition that the solution to the Clinton mystery is his opponent. Even many Republicans seem to believe that only by nominating a hopeless candidate could they manage to be losing to such a vulnerable incumbent. If Dole in fact loses, the question of how a ruthlessly efficient election machine like the modern Republican party managed to bungle its nomination so badly will be oft pondered. Even if he wins somehow, the question probably won't go away.

How did it happen? Dole, goodness knows, represents no strong ideological position. He has no large popular following. He has no natural campaign skills that cry out to be exploited. Although an admirable person in many ways, Dole is not, in short, the end point of any rational selection process for a major party's presidential nomination. In retrospect, the Republicans seem to have anointed Dole out of such admirably unpragmatic, old-fashioned motives as honoring achievement and deference to seniority that were thought to be long dead in the Grand Old Party. Which brings us to...

7. LUCK

The last explanation for the Clinton mystery. Is this the luckiest guy around, or what? Count on that becoming a theme if Clinton wins. He wins the presidency with a minority of the vote, he loses Congress for his party and it ends up helping him, the opposition party accidentally gives its nomination to a hopeless candidate: these are just the latest lucky breaks for a politician who fortuitously, as a teenager, had his picture taken with President John Kennedy. No wonder he still believes in a place called Hope!

But luck is just a residual explanation for what can't be explained. And luck still could change.

For continuous convention coverage, see the TIME/CNN Website at AllPolitics.com