JULIUS SPEAKER?

In the days when he bestrode Washington like a colossus, Newt Gingrich found inspiration in great military leaders of old, from Ataturk to Wellington. Last week, as Gingrich faced one of the lowest points of his rocky speakership, history offered a more cautionary lesson. It was that of a Roman general who became master of the empire, only to find that his own inner circle posed a greater threat than any enemy he had met on the battlefield. Last Tuesday evening, when a handful of conspirators met in the Capitol to plot against their Speaker, Gingrich could not help noticing where they had gathered--in a secluded suite of rooms one floor above his, the offices that belong to majority leader Dick Armey.

Et tu, Dick?

Gingrich's current difficulties, while less acute than the ethics investigation that threatened his speakership last winter, are in many ways more intractable, largely because the criticism is coming from within. Republicans say he lacks direction, negotiating skills and--for the first time in his political career--a clear message that can inspire the faithful. Having come to power preaching revolution, he now presides over an incrementalist institution, holding a paper-thin majority against a popular Democratic President.

The Speaker, in an interview, dismissed questions about his political survival as a "media frenzy" over a "road bump," in this case, the recriminations that followed the G.O.P.'s bungling of a disaster-aid bill. It is true that he appears in little immediate danger: the consequences of unseating the party's leader seem vastly worse than the damage Gingrich has done, and, more important, Republicans have no obvious replacement. But both his allies and his enemies say this summer's struggle over shaping the tax bill, the initial versions of which both houses expect to pass with much fanfare this week, may determine whether Gingrich survives the year. "If he blows it," says an influential G.O.P. strategist close to the leadership, "it is his last shot. He will lose his speakership."

Armey, having grumbled privately that he was shut out of a budget deal that abandoned conservative principles, took his complaints public and announced that he would not be bound by the agreement. When Armey was asked Tuesday whether he regards Gingrich as an effective leader, the Speaker's top lieutenant made for the exit, telling reporters; "Y'all have a good day now." In subsequent statements, Gingrich and Armey downplayed reports of a rift as misconstrued, but Republican sources say the relationship has become badly and possibly irreparably frayed.

That same evening--the Speaker's 54th birthday, as it happened--about 35 Republicans, largely drawn from the Gingrich- inspired Class of '94, met in Armey's suite, ostensibly to talk about upcoming legislation. But their session opened instead with outbursts against Gingrich, some even asserting that it was time to dump him. For the first time, a participant recalled, Gingrich's fellow Republicans were saying they no longer could trust him.