Will We Have To Go To War For Taiwan?

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On all the maps, the beautiful, bustling island 100 miles off the coast of China is clearly labeled: Taiwan. The swarms of tourists and businessmen who arrive at the cavernous Chiang Kai-shek International Airport know they have landed in Taiwan. Even hostile communist officials in Beijing sometimes refer to their old foes, the Nationalists, as "the authorities on Taiwan." But if the government on the island should ever begin calling itself the Republic of Taiwan, signaling that it is declaring its full independence from the mainland, the most likely reply from the People's Republic of China across the straits would be a military attack and a war the U.S. would have trouble staying out of.

The uncomfortable truth is that Taiwan is already independent in all but name and that Beijing is sharpening its weapons to reverse the process. Last month Chinese President Jiang Zemin summoned his top officials for a three-day review of Taiwan policy and urged them to "speed up the reunification of the motherland." Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan says Taiwan is "the most important core issue" in relations with the U.S., and President Bill Clinton will hear all about that when he arrives in China next week.

Clinton will insist that he too supports the concept of one China and is not colluding in creating an independent Taiwan. But he will probably refuse to put that in writing, and he will not agree to stop selling modern weaponry to the Republic of China on Taiwan. The U.S. is caught right in the middle of one of the most explosive confrontations left in the world.

Washington's promises that it will not tamper with Taiwan's future by signing a new U.S.-China communique have not reassured Taipei. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has already responded to Chinese demands with a policy statement nicknamed "the three nos": that is, the U.S. will not support a two-China policy, nor Taiwan's independence, nor Taiwan's membership in the U.N. These are the points that China wants Clinton to write down and sign.

The mere possibility of such a Clinton-Jiang agreement has officials in Taipei frazzled. China hopes to use better relations with the U.S. as bait, to entice Washington into a joint effort to put pressure on Taiwan. Taiwan is worried that some arm-twisting could be coming. "We believe the U.S. should not discuss the three nos with Beijing," says Chen Chien-jen, director-general of the Government Information Office in Taipei. Adds Vice Foreign Minister David Lee: "We don't want this written down because we don't want Beijing to interpret what independence means."

Washington has been hip deep in China's civil war for 50 years, since General George C. Marshall tried unsuccessfully to mediate between the Nationalists led by Chiang Kai-shek, and the communists led by Mao Zedong. Even now, under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the U.S. sells "arms of a defensive character" to Taiwan and warns Beijing that Washington expects "that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means." Any use of force would be "of grave concern."