Waiting For Hurricane X

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The SLOSH analysis of New York City revealed that the sharp bend in the Atlantic coastline where New York and New Jersey meet, the New York Bight, would amplify the effects of a storm surge to the point where even a modest hurricane could generate deadly flooding in lower Manhattan. "That right angle, believe it or not, can cause 30 ft. of storm surge above normal tide conditions," says Donald Lewis, a hurricane-evacuation expert based in Miami who worked on the New York City study. "The same storm in other parts of the country might cause only a 14- or 15-ft. surge."

Suddenly the project took on a new urgency. The researchers concluded that the surge from a Category 4 storm would put John F. Kennedy International Airport under 20 ft. of water. Seawater would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and into the city's subways throughout lower Manhattan. The flooding would be especially disastrous if people seeking to escape torrential rains and falling debris were to take shelter in subway stations. The report didn't estimate casualties, but observed that storms "that would present low to moderate hazards in other regions of the country could result in heavy loss of life."

For now, at least, disaster scenarios like this remain only hypothetical. Perhaps that's one reason most people don't pay much attention. Homes still rise on the barrier islands off North Carolina. On Galveston's westernmost beaches, where the land is barely above sea level, luxurious new mansions stand atop stilts so tall the scene is almost comical. Just a few minutes up the road, however, there's a poignant monument to this sort of denial. Hard by bright blue signs marking Galveston's primary evacuation route, a small plaque commemorates the site where the hurricane of 1900 destroyed an orphanage and took the lives of 87 children. Just across the street stands a brand new Wal-Mart.