Iran: Tehran vs. The Taliban

Iran and Afghanistan, two of the most profoundly fundamentalist Muslim countries, sit side by side, but common faith doesn't make them friendly. In fact, each despises the other's brand of Islam. Now Iran's Shi'ite leaders and the Sunni Taliban militia that has nearly succeeded in imposing its rule over most of Afghanistan are threatening to turn an ancient theological schism into a fighting war.

The immediate provocation is nine dead Iranians, killed last month when Taliban warriors conquered Mazar-i-Sharif, a stronghold of Afghanistan's Shi'ite community. Only last week did Taliban leaders admit that eight diplomats and a journalist holed up in the Iranian consulate were massacred by the invaders. Iranian officials were equally upset by the defeat and reported slaughter of the city's Shi'ites. Tehran vowed revenge and announced last week that it was dispatching 200,000 troops for "maneuvers" on the Afghan border.

The saber rattling began with an exchange of insults. The Taliban fighters were "uneducated idiots," sneered Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei, the hard-line mullah who also serves as commander in chief of the armed forces. Soon after, the Taliban's leader, a charismatic, one-eyed village clergyman named Mullah Mohammed Omar, retorted that the Shi'ites were ranked somewhere "between infidels and true Muslims." Khamenei had already sent thousands of Revolutionary 4Guards to stage showy war games along the border. Now, he warned, "I have so far prevented the lighting of a fire in this region which would be hard to extinguish. But all should know that a very great and wide danger is quite near."

Tehran is taking its political jeopardy seriously. Most Iranians are Shi'ite, and they watched with growing disquiet as the puritanical Sunnis of the Taliban swept across Afghanistan like a fierce windstorm. The Taliban's faithful regard all Shi'ites as heretics who face possible persecution for their minority beliefs. Tehran officials charge that the Taliban gives Islam a bad name, but they mainly resent its challenge to Iran's claim to Muslim supremacy. "Iran is looked on as the godfather of Shi'ites everywhere," says Olivier Roy, a French expert on the region. "If the Iranians do nothing, they will lose face."

Another crucial factor is Iran's fear of being outflanked in the region's complex geopolitics. Iran, backer of the Afghan government ousted two years ago, and Pakistan, which supports the Taliban, have been vying for influence in Afghanistan ever since Soviet troops withdrew in 1989. Pakistan's newly declared nuclear capability has only intensified Tehran's anxiety. Complicating things further is the internal power struggle between Khamenei's hard-liners and emerging moderates led by President Mohammed Khatami.

Afghan experts in the region say Iran has three military options: launching a punitive air strike; giving solid backup to 4,000 anti-Taliban rebels who have regrouped near the border; or going for an all-out offensive against the Taliban forces in a drive to besieged Shi'ite areas 400 miles away. History has never been kind to those who invade Afghanistan, however. U.S. intelligence officials strongly doubt that Iran can mobilize 200,000 troops for the promised maneuvers, and few in the country have the heart for another war.