Down In History

(5 of 6)

It has taken a while for the White House to understand that even though Clinton's situation has improved since the G.O.P. released his videotaped testimony, he is still a long way from safety. "These guys think that because things are a little less bleak they're winning!" marvels a Democratic strategist. "As if being the third President in history to face an impeachment inquiry is a victory." Said a House Democratic leadership aide on Tuesday: "Everything's relative. At the White House, any day is a good day if he hasn't been forced to resign. That's where we are now."

By the time it was all over, it was clear that impeachment had more to do with the elections than the elections will have to do with impeachment. Everyone got just what he or she wanted out of Thursday's vote. The Republicans got a red-hot poker to prod any reluctant followers to the polls: the prospect that they might take the 42nd President, whose success they could not contain, and toss him out of office. That's a lot to boast about in some places. And the Democrats got all kinds of ammunition to rally their faithful and broil their Republican opponents for unfairness and arrogance in their solemn duty. Once more they can call the Republicans dangerous and destructive. Once more they can say vital issues are being ignored. With weapons like that, who needs vital issues?

Depending on how the midterm elections go, several things could happen after Nov. 3, and almost all of them are bad. The Judiciary Committee could proceed with hearings, put Monica under lights, and go through the sordid evidence all over again. Hyde seemed to be edging away from the Broadway show version of this last week. But the Democrats may force his hand in the hope of making the G.O.P. spectacle even more revolting, and sooner or later he is going to have to decide whether there are grounds for impeachment. Then House Speaker Gingrich will have to decide whether to schedule a vote, cut a deal or just stall for more time. Party elders have seen the toll taken in the past month and don't like the looks of the future. As one of them put it last week, "We hold all the cards, and we are losing."

Gingrich & Co. don't want to choose which path to take until the election results are in. And so both parties wait for the returns, aware that the Holy Grail of higher turnout brings with it no guarantees of deliverance from this mess. Most of Gingrich's advisers say he would prefer to avoid the unpleasant spectacle of impeachment proceedings. He knows Clinton will survive, and he prefers that to President Gore anyway. But he has no easy way out. It is not at all clear that 20 extra seats after November would make resolution of the mess any easier; indeed, if a big G.O.P. victory is read as a mandate to slowly poach the President, then impeachment becomes harder to quell. "They never have exit strategies," says a White House official. "They only have strategies for confrontation."