Down In History

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The Democrats aren't in an easy position either. It has long been thought that if they lose badly next month it would make a censure deal more likely. The bloodied Democratic leaders could storm the White House in mid-December, point to all their dead comrades and demand that Clinton accept terms that would bring the matter to a close with another apology, some fines and admission of guilt. But now Democratic leaders have their doubts. The more seats they lose in November, the more liberal the remaining Democratic caucus becomes, and thus the less likely it will be to support any leadership attempt to bring Clinton to negotiated justice. Just a few weeks ago, Gephardt and Senate minority leader Tom Daschle were working behind the scenes on a negotiated settlement. That talk has cooled with the growing evidence that this entire spectacle, whatever the next three months bring, might be worse for Republicans than for Democrats.

Clinton has been on that program for weeks now. In recent days he has seemed to aides almost immune to personal embarrassment, fortified by the very fact of his survival and greeting every House Democrat with a fistful of polls showing that his support is holding up. Asked after the vote Thursday what he could do to turn things around, Clinton seemed almost meditative in his detachment. "It is not in my hands," he said. "It is in the hands of Congress and the people of this country--ultimately in the hands of God. There is nothing I can do."

At least not about the impeachment process. Clinton will continue his Briefing Room presidency, ruling by Executive order. He'll focus on four big issues only: Social Security, war and peace, and to a lesser extent education and the patient bill of rights. He'll do very little campaigning during the next three weeks, certainly nothing like 1994. He may appear in a few Senate races, he'll still raise money, but barnstorming with Congressmen is out. "He's not a candidate," says an adviser. "The last thing we're going to do now is make him one." But that doesn't mean he won't still win in the end.

--Reported by Jay Branegan, James Carney, John F. Dickerson and Karen Tumulty/Washington