The Ethnic Cleanser

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Certainly his Kosovo strategy has been confounding. In part, says a U.S. official, Milosevic seems closed off to reality. When negotiating, he relies on a mix of charm and tirades about the victimization of the Serbs. Says the official: "Every second sentence is wrong or a lie. He pours out his soul, but you don't know if he believes all that rubbish." He never says yes or no, never puts his own name to a formal agreement. While his vicious behavior in Kosovo has evoked comparison to Hitler, those who know him say Milosevic doesn't dream so large. "He wants to be the tinhorn dictator of Serbia forever," says a U.S. official. "Beyond that, nothing."

All these contradictions have kept Washington and its allies guessing. Few believe Milosevic's attachment to Kosovo is more than skin deep. Some Serbs say he stirred up the crisis to distract attention from the foundering economy. Yet in considering whether to placate the West or defy it, he is operating according to his own calculus of the risk to himself and his regime. The issue comes down to his feeling about the place where the myth of his own power was built. "He doesn't know," says a top U.S. official in Belgrade, "whether caving in makes him lose face to a point that challenges his power, or whether suffering the damage that would be inflicted on his security forces would undermine their control and their loyalty to him."

Many analysts have suggested that he wants to absorb enough punishment to provide cover for handing over Kosovo to international peacekeepers. "It's very Slavic," says the Russian observer. "He needs to be seen as compelled, so he can sell it to the 90% of Serbs who cling to Kosovo emotionally." But it is equally possible that he has something else in mind. Perhaps he thinks he can successfully endure all the bombing the West can muster and still continue to defy its plans for Kosovo, as his enemies exhaust their will before he exhausts his. "He truly believes he is tougher than the West," says a U.S. diplomat.

Milosevic has miscalculated disastrously before, but he has also brilliantly calculated his hold on power. Which will it be this time? There are those in Washington and Europe who hope that he has gone too far in presiding over death and destruction. Perhaps all those NATO missiles and bombs may finally convince the Serbs that they do not need Milosevic ruining their lives any longer. But reports from Belgrade suggest that the air attacks have Serbs rallying to Milosevic as never before. Once again, in Milosevic's Balkans, it is far from clear who has calculated best.