Russia: Survival of the Fittest

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But in Russia these days, one battle just leads to another. The Duma presents Yeltsin with a similarly complex enigma. The very machinations he used to wriggle out of impeachment--everything from firing Primakov to making promises to the opposition--now present him with a new maze to negotiate.

The first challenge will be winning approval for his choice to replace Primakov, a colorless former political commissar named Sergei Stepashin. Unlike Primakov, Stepashin is largely unknown outside Russia. In the corridors of power he is recognized as a capable bureaucrat, and someone who in recent months has quietly become a presidential favorite. As head of the Federal Security Service, the successor to the kgb, he was a hawk during the war in Chechnya. And he remains deeply unpopular among Russian officers for the way he sent a covert force into Chechnya at the start of the war and disowned the troops when they were captured. His most recent jobs--first as Interior Minister, then as Deputy Prime Minister--have clearly labeled him as one of the few men Yeltsin trusts with power.

What Stepashin does, and does very well, is protect Yeltsin. And his appointment more than anything is a sign that Yeltsin has now morphed from a man who wanted to change Russia into a man who simply wants to hold on to power. As his nation starves, Yeltsin reached not for an economist or a diplomat who might be able to help Russians figure a way forward. Instead he called on a security man. After its humiliation over the impeachment, the Duma may decide to save face by rejecting Stepashin. But it may be hard for them to summon up the organization and courage to turn Stepashin down. Parliamentary leaders like communist leader Gennadi Zyuganov sounded winded after the impeachment debate wound down, exhausted by Yeltsin's apparent political immortality.

But with the approach of the year 2000 and the end of his second term, Yeltsin has become a prisoner of his own nightmares--that he and his family will be persecuted or prosecuted by political enemies once he leaves office, that the sort of slights and humiliations he has inflicted on others will be visited upon him. He has plenty to fear. The sight of deputies accusing an incumbent President of high treason is a worrying reminder of how bad things could be for him when he leaves office. And impeachment was not his first nasty fright. Just two months ago, when his daughter Tatyana's name surfaced publicly in connection with an investigation into alleged corruption in the presidential administration, it looked as if the Yeltsin family shield was cracking. In fact, she was far removed from the investigation, and no charges were ever brought. Discussion of the case has faded from the press in recent weeks. With Stepashin's appointment the investigation may disappear altogether.