Who Chose George?

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In a TIME/CNN poll last week, 62% of those surveyed had a favorable impression of him, even as 73% admitted they needed to know more. And so this rollout is all about making introductions. If they get this right, Bush aides whisper, the G.O.P. nomination might be all wrapped up in the next three weeks. That is a breathtaking admission of a breathtaking strategy: raise so much money, lock down so many endorsements that the spotlight follows you everywhere, your opponents freeze to death in your shadow and, best of all, you cruise straight past the primaries and into the general election as "a uniter, not a divider," with none of the debts and scars and promises that slow candidates down just at the point when the campaign becomes a sprint. The Republican faithful would forgo their normal feedings of litmus tests and put up with this soggy message of "compassionate conservatism" because Bush has a message for them too. Three words: I can win. Now he just has to prove it will work.

"I never dreamt about being president," Bush told TIME. "It hasn't been part of my life's game plan. All of a sudden, people start talking to me about the presidency..."

The Bush team loves to recall the moment in the summer of 1997 when Karen Hughes, Bush's communications whiz, walked into the Governor's office with a poll showing him suddenly ahead of all the other Republican contenders. "You've got to be kidding me," Bush said, a reply conveniently retailed to reporters since. The polls were a bit fluky: a Republican working for Bush conceded that some 40% of those who picked Bush in the early days thought they were voting to bring back the Old Man, not Junior. But that was also the summer when the giants started to fall and the party cracked wide open: Jack Kemp and Colin Powell weren't in the game, Newt Gingrich was nearly toppled in a coup attempt in the House, and the other candidates seemed to have been running since the dawn of time without getting anywhere. "There was this vacuum," says a Republican strategist, "and it became like space. It was huge."

Ever since that time, the Bush team has insisted that what happened was more good luck than hard work, that the party came to him. "This is the closest thing the party has ever had to a genuine draft," Rove told TIME. Added Hughes: "We returned a lot more phone calls than we made." All true: Bush may not be quick to create opportunities, but he is quick not to miss them. "Nothing in politics just happens," says veteran consultant Scott Reed. "What they have done is nothing short of awesome."

They began with a happy coincidence. The whole thing would be over before it began if Bush didn't get re-elected Governor of Texas, a state with a history of tossing Governors overboard after one term. Staying focused at home would also keep him out of the fray that was chewing up other politicians. And since the Texas Governor doesn't have much power, he had no choice but to build a big coalition, work with the Democrats and generally conduct himself in a way that offered a perfect contrast to the eye gouging going on in Washington. Together Bush and his coalition would pass the biggest tax cut in the state's history, reform its tort-liability system and boost reading scores enough to give him bragging rights on a national scale.