The Good News Coup?

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Still, the coup does not solve the various problems that make the region one of the most dangerous places on earth. While Musharraf is a liberal Muslim and most of the army's top brass are moderate, U.S. analysts say fundamentalists have made inroads in the lower ranks of the military. A rise in fundamentalism under the new regime could set off another wave of sectarian killings and would unnerve India, which responded warily to the coup. Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee was expected to resume peace talks with Sharif in November, but the coup has made that unlikely. Last week Indian forces were on high alert, though no one anticipates an outbreak of hostilities. Given the Pakistani army's past misconceptions about Indian strategic thinking, the risk of war is ever a concern, as is the safety of the rivals' nukes. "Nobody has a clue what kind of procedures they have devised to be able to ensure the safety and protection of these [weapons]," says Gates.

Pakistanis are used to army rule. The military has run Pakistan for 25 of the 52 years since the birth of the nation. But an early period of military rule ended disastrously with civil war, armed confrontation with India, and the independence of Bangladesh in 1971. And the legacy of the last military strongman, Zia ul-Haq, who was killed in a 1988 plane crash, is the country's so far unviable democracy. There had been little longing for the military's return to politics, but the ineptitude of Sharif's government and his self-serving brand of management made a confrontation with the military--still the country's strongest institution--hard to avoid. Relations with Musharraf were clearly sour by July. After meeting with Clinton, Sharif ordered the military to retreat from the Indian side of Kashmir. The announcement infuriated army commanders. In a last grasp for control, Sharif decided to fire Musharraf last week and replace him with Khwaja Ziauddin, head of Pakistani intelligence.

But Musharraf had planned for just such a move. Within two hours of the announcement of his dismissal, troops loyal to the general seized Pakistan's TV headquarters and a convoy of army trucks carrying soldiers pulled up to the Prime Minister's mansion, where they took Sharif and Ziauddin into custody. Musharraf was on a plane from Sri Lanka bound for Karachi. Sharif loyalists told the pilot to divert the plane to the town of Nawabshah, where Sharif had reportedly arranged to have Musharraf arrested. When the plane got stuck in a holding pattern, Musharraf entered the cockpit and ordered the pilot to land in Karachi. When it touched down, the aircraft had five minutes' worth of fuel left.

Musharraf does not fit the profile of a strongman. He is known as a quiet, principled consensus builder who has modest political ambitions. His son lives in the U.S. and reportedly works as an actuary. In his free time, Musharraf reads the speeches of Abraham Lincoln. "I don't think he will be suspicious of the U.S.," says Bhutto. And yet hopes that he would quickly cobble together an interim civilian government seemed to be dashed when he imposed martial law. Says a senior White House official: "We'll have to see how long Musharraf wants to hold on to power and what he wants to do with it." If Musharraf dawdles too long, the cheering in Pakistan may stop sooner than he thinks.