Hard Lessons

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Russia's generals have learned some hard lessons. After the blood-soaked debacle of the last attempt to subdue Chechnya during 1994-1996, war gamers went back to the doctrine of the ferocious Russian who first conquered the Caucasus, 19th century general Alexei Yermolov: use siege warfare rather than frontal assault. Make slow advances under cover of heavy guns and bombardment. Avoid close encounters with a lightly armed but fearsome enemy. Applying these principles in their current campaign, which began in late September, Moscow's generals aimed to grind down the rebel force until the remnants would flee back into the mountains and then keep them there, where they would gradually wither under the onslaught of winter and warplanes. It seemed to be working.

At least that was how it seemed until last week, when someone forgot the new war plan. On Wednesday evening a Russian armored column rolled deep into downtown Grozny, the besieged and ruined Chechen capital, only to be ambushed by 2,000 rebels. Caught in the open as they advanced into Minutka Square, seven tanks and eight personnel carriers ran into a devastating barrage of rifle fire and rocket-propelled grenades that slaughtered the soldiers as their vehicles exploded in flames. Three hours later, more than 100 Russian corpses lay amid the wreckage, according to on-the-spot wire services. It was an awful replay of the head-on tactics that had cost Moscow so many casualties--and public support for the war--in a similar assault on Grozny five years ago.

Just that afternoon in Moscow, Russia's generals had boldly predicted imminent victory. The secret of their success, they said, was the change in tactics. Grozny would be taken "in a matter of days," declared General Valeri Manilov of the General Staff, and all of Chechnya would fall to Russia in a month or two. A day later, the military denied that any foray into Grozny had even taken place. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, chief sponsor and political beneficiary of the war, dismissed reports of heavy casualties as "complete nonsense."

The Minutka Square battle was the first real setback for Russia's military since it launched its "counter-terror operation," as Moscow insists on calling the war against Chechen independence. Russian generals are once again figures of respect, not the butt of jokes. The three ground commanders, Colonel General Viktor Kazantsev, Lieut. General Gennadi Troshev and Major General Vladimir Shamanov, were recently named heroes of the Russian Federation. The country's self-confidence has flourished along with its armed forces. And Putin's supporters happily predict that a victory will propel him to the presidency next July.