Campaign '04: Beating The Spread

In Iowa, you can win when you lose, and lose when you win. Results in the caucuses don't matter so much as those in the expectations game--so campaigns are lowering the bar. Here are past winners, official and otherwise. --By Mitch Frank

1972 Senator George McGovern was an unknown, but campaign manager Gary Hart realized Iowa could win him notice. Ed Muskie got 35% of the vote, but McGovern won 22.6%--and a lot more coverage

1976 Playing off his anonymity, Jimmy Carter ran on the slogan "Jimmy Who?" He finished 10 points behind "Uncommitted" but gained national attention for beating a crowded field after months of campaigning

1984 The bar for former VP Walter Mondale was daunting. While he won an impressive 48.9%, Gary Hart's 16.5% got him second place over people like John Glenn and catapulted him to a win a week later in New Hampshire

1988 Bob Dole was from nearby Kansas, so the race was for second. When Pat Robertson mobilized an army of Christian conservatives to give him a six-point win over George Bush Sr., the Vice President was badly gored

2000 Even Bill Bradley's campaign was predicting an Al Gore win, but it didn't predict a 63%-35% walloping. Gore's team got out the vote, and his victory nipped Bradley's momentum in New Hampshire