Iraq: One Year Later: Which Way Is The Exit?

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There's rarely a day in Iraq when something doesn't blow up. Take last week. First there were the suicide bombs that shattered the holiest day in the Shi'ite Muslim calendar with profane carnage. As devout worshippers crowded the sect's most sacred shrines in Karbala and Baghdad, a succession of explosions ripped through the crowds flogging themselves in ritual guilt for the murder 14 centuries ago of revered leader Imam Hussein. Suddenly the death and blood were made more terribly real, as 181 perished and 571 fell injured. Panicked pilgrims stampeded for cover, and a guard from the religious militia providing security at Karbala's Abbas shrine screamed out: "Why, why, why, why this?" While outraged Shi'ites looked for someone to blame--Sunni Muslims, foreign terrorists, the U.S.--the intention seemed evident: to stir up civil war among Iraq's simmering factions.

On Friday came another bombshell, this one political but no less devastating. At 4 p.m., inside the Baghdad Convention Center, in the heart of the U.S. occupation compound, 25 blue-and-gold pens sat on a table waiting for the 25 members of the Iraqi Governing Council to sign the historic interim constitution that they had unanimously approved the previous Monday under the forceful prodding of American proconsul L. Paul Bremer. They never appeared. Iraq's leading Shi'ite cleric, the Grand Ayatullah Ali Husaini Sistani, whose word is law among his millions of followers, had rejected two clauses in the document. As a result, five Shi'ite members of the council, including Pentagon favorite Ahmed Chalabi, refused to ratify the basic law that is to govern Iraq when the U.S. hands over sovereignty on June 30. Bremer and the council struggled through the weekend to repair the damage, but no matter how they resolve the impasse, the disintegration of Friday's ceremonial show of unity did not bode well for the future governing of Iraq.

Two issues--Iraq's security and its sovereignty--form the linchpin of Washington's effort to carry out a successful exit strategy. President George W. Bush has bet the U.S. can get a handle on both issues by the end of June. If the U.S. can pull it off--the country stabilizes as violence diminishes and made-in-Iraq political institutions take hold--Bush can finally claim a victory for the war he made. But if Iraq come June looks like Iraq last week, the U.S.--and Bush--will have no graceful way out.

As the U.S. tries to wind down the occupation, it is caught in a confounding bind. Nearly everyone wants the Americans out, but few can imagine a viable Iraq without them. Bush, for reasons of principle as well as electoral politics, wants Iraq to rule itself but cannot look as if he's cutting and running. In fact, June 30 will mark a symbolic rather than an actual change in the U.S. role; at least 100,000 U.S. troops will remain on the ground, and the biggest U.S. embassy in the world, with more than 3,000 people taking over Bremer's civilian chores, will open its doors.