Shifting Power

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U.S. officials say the Administration's acquiescence to Brahimi's plan was not a response to the recent turmoil. Administration sources say the U.S. decided earlier this year to throw in its lot with the U.N. when it came to deciding what would happen post--June 30. Working with the Governing Council, Brahimi in February helped broker the transitional administrative law, which established guidelines under which an interim Iraqi government would assume power. Although the U.S. had initially wanted to turn sovereignty over to an expanded Governing Council, Brahimi--backed by Robert Blackwill, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice's deputy in Iraq--forged ahead with negotiations with Iraqis over an alternative. As the June 30 deadline drew closer, Powell told Brahimi that the Administration was willing to let him do anything, as long as he did something.

By the time Brahimi returned to Iraq two weeks ago, the White House was fully mobilized behind his efforts. Blackwill accompanied Brahimi on his trip. Blackwill's charge was to make sure no one could sabotage Brahimi's work--in particular, civilians in the Pentagon who felt their control slipping and members of the Governing Council who tried to block Brahimi's return, knowing he was inclined to do away with them and start fresh.

That, for the moment, seems to have been accomplished. But now comes the much trickier task of making Brahimi's proposal work. While many of its details are still works in progress, the plan calls for Brahimi to appoint a panel of Iraqis who would help the U.N. name a President, two Vice Presidents, a Prime Minister and a group of technocrats to run ministries and prepare the country for elections in early 2005. Critically, it attempts to bring Sunni Muslims--who make up about 30% of Iraq's population and who ran Iraq under Saddam Hussein--back into the political process. Brahimi last week pointedly took issue with the U.S.-sponsored campaign of "de-Baathification," which stripped most members of Saddam's Baath Party of their old government jobs. "Professionals who are sorely needed in the country have been dismissed," Brahimi said, making clear that Baathists without blood on their hands would be welcomed back into the government. U.S. State Department officials have long argued that there would be no security in Iraq unless the Sunnis were offered an alternative to insurrection. By giving Baathists a seat at the table, Brahimi hopes to co-opt them.

It won't be easy. For one thing, the decision to involve even low-level members of the former regime is deeply controversial among Iraq's majority Shi'ites, who suffered hugely at the hands of Baathists under Saddam. Brahimi has yet to secure the backing of Iraq's most important Shi'ite, Grand Ayatullah Ali Husaini Sistani, who has so far refused to endorse any of the plans for creating a new Iraqi government. Brahimi has conferred with Sistani's son; Brahimi's spokesman, Ahmad Fawzi, does not rule out the possibility that Sistani will demand guarantees that, among other things, the future government limit the ability of Sunnis and Kurds to interfere with Shi'ite interests.