John Kerry's Silent Spring

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There is an odd confusion of style and philosophy here. Bush is bold to the point of recklessness--a quality conservatives usually associate with liberalism--whereas Kerry is cautious to a fault, a stylistic reactionary. Most successful presidential campaigns sail into Washington on a gust of fresh talent. In 1992 Bill Clinton was surrounded by new faces, from his rowdy team of political consultants to the New Democrat policy wonks who produced his agenda. Kerry, however, is engulfed by the sort of people Howard Dean railed against: timid congressional Democratic staff members and some of the old Clinton crowd, less hungry now, less rowdy, too rutted in past successes to try anything new. There are precious few sharp young people in positions of responsibility and--very strange for a Democrat--no prominent blacks or Latinos in the inner circle either. Kerry's may be the most sclerotic presidential campaign since Bob Dole's.

The stodginess is compounded by the Senator's public performances. In an effort to seem positive, he has removed the "Bring It On" red meat from his stump speech and replaced it with Spam. It is not uncommon to see audiences leaving his fund-raising events in droves while he is still speaking. Often he'll talk about the need for a new style of campaigning, a "conversation" with the American people, and then he'll proceed to relaunder a list of Democratic nostrums ("Health care is a right, not a privilege") that were cliches when Dukakis slogged the trail. There is nothing conversational, or comforting, about his candidacy.

And so, an odd year. Polls say the public is very much engaged, but the combatants seem disengaged. Bush is Bush. Neither he nor his campaign will change much between now and November. His future is at the mercy of events in the world, particularly in Iraq. Kerry has a slightly more enviable position. The President's attempt to define him negatively has had only marginal success. My guess is that there are small but significant numbers of Bush supporters who are ready to jump ship--fiscal conservatives, military families, diplomatic traditionalists angry about the war. A vote for Kerry will not be easy for them; it will have to be earned. The Senator will have to prove that he is up to the presidency. That will require a largeness of spirit, a well-tempered candor and a political courage that he has not yet demonstrated.