The Nader Effect

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The state Democratic parties are doing what they can to make it even harder on Nader. In Texas, Democrats sent an e-mail reminding party members that by law they couldn't sign a Nader petition if they had voted in the primary. In Arizona, where a poll shows Nader pulling what could be a decisive 7% of the vote, state Democratic chairman Jim Pederson says the party has assembled a team of lawyers to look at every one of the signatures Nader collects. "Our first objective is to keep him off the ballot," Pederson says. "This vote is about George Bush and John Kerry, and we think it distorts the entire electoral process to have his name on the ballot."

Nader acknowledges that getting on the ballot as an independent is like "climbing a cliff with a slippery rope." But he could be getting a leg up from various third parties. The idea is to have it both ways: collect their endorsements--and their access to a line on various state ballots--but maintain his "independent" aura. Two weeks ago, he won the nod of the Reform Party, Perot's old outfit, which would automatically put him on the ballot in seven states, including battlegrounds Florida and Michigan, if he chooses. And although Nader says he doesn't want the Green Party's formal nomination again, he could get its endorsement at next month's convention, which would put him on its ballot line in some of 22 states where it has one. Meanwhile, Nader is also forming his own Populist Party, which presumably could endorse him as well and take advantage of the fact that in some states--like Florida--it is easier for a new party to put a candidate on the ballot than for an independent to get on.

Nader once again puts the Democrats in a delicate situation. As long as Nader is in the race, Kerry will need to tend his left flank, which could make it harder for him to appeal to centrist swing voters. Come fall, Kerry could also find himself in a situation similar to what Gore faced--be forced to spend precious time and money campaigning in states like Washington and Maine that, without Nader in the race, would be solidly in his column.

Kerry's allies are laying plans to take on Nader more directly. This week a group of Democratic strategists who previously worked for failed Democratic candidates Howard Dean, Dick Gephardt and Wesley Clark will start airing ads in Arizona and Wisconsin featuring a regretful 2000 Nader voter who laments, "I feel I made a mistake. By supporting Ralph Nader, I actually helped George Bush." Kerry himself is getting blunter too: "A vote for Ralph Nader is a vote for George Bush," he told the Associated Press.

Democratic leaders are vowing not to repeat their mistakes with Nader. For starters, they want him close enough to keep an eye on him. Kerry met with Nader last week; their tense session lasted more than an hour, and both sides say they expect more meetings. Democratic Party chairman Terry McAuliffe makes a point of calling Nader regularly, usually starting the conversation, "So, are you dropping out, Ralph?" At a minimum, McAuliffe has privately asked Nader not to campaign in battleground states. Did he agree? "Of course not," Nader told TIME.