Inside The Mind Of John Kerry

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And then he disappeared. On Oct. 11, Kerry cast his vote to authorize force in Iraq--and a very different, cautious, incoherent Kerry emerged on the other side. Before long, he was sucked into that "conventional wisdom of consultants, pollsters and strategists," having hired what seemed to be several thousand of them. But it wasn't the consultants or Jim Jordan or even Howard Dean who was poisoning his campaign. It was Kerry and his utter inability to explain his vote on Iraq.

The problem may have been that the ghost of that old idealism-averse Richard Kerry was sitting on his shoulder, whispering tsk-tsk-tsk. Before making up his mind, Kerry had done his usual high-minded wise-man process. He asked his staff for detailed information, grilled them on it, consulted with a legion of foreign policy Pooh-Bahs--almost always keeping his own counsel, never tipping his hand.

Jonathan Winer, a former Kerry staff member, says the policy process usually involves a political component: "He always asks, 'Who else likes it?' 'Who doesn't?' 'Why don't they?' 'Why haven't we addressed that argument?' And when all those questions are answered, he goes off and makes his decision." Sometimes, however, it takes a while. According to advisers, the decision-making process on all three crucial votes he has cast on Iraq, starting with his vote against the first Gulf War in 1991, was brutal.

There was good reason for this. In each case, there was a fair amount of political gamesmanship going on. In each case, the outcome was known before a single vote was cast. In 1991, Kerry managed to twist himself into a pretzel trying to figure out the political angles on the first Gulf War vote. "The Bush people were saying it was going to be a tough war," recalls a former staff member. "John thought they were setting us up. He thought it was going to be relatively easy and the Administration wanted the Democrats to make fools of themselves by voting against it. He was probably right about that. On the other hand, his constituents were very much opposed. If he voted in favor, the people of Massachusetts would see him as someone who'd voted for a war that wasn't essential." In the end, Kerry voted with his constituents and perhaps with his memories of Vietnam. A second staff member offers an account that emphasizes the emotional quality of the vote. "It was too close [in time] to Vietnam. He just wasn't ready yet to send young Americans off to die."

Kerry's second Iraq-war vote was in part a reaction to his vote against the first. "Bush was saying, 'I dare you to vote against this war,'" says a Kerry adviser. "Of course, John had his substantive reasons for voting for the war. He believed the intelligence about the WMD. He had called for regime change in 1998, after Saddam forced out the U.N. inspectors. But I'm pretty sure there was a political calculation too. John decided not to give Bush what he really wanted: a no vote."

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