Inside The Mind Of George W. Bush

Also, Bush is captive to his strong belief in loyalty. He didn't go after CIA chief George Tenet or anyone else for failures over 9/11 or prewar Iraq intelligence. When chief of staff Andrew Card was looking for a replacement for ousted Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, Card phoned one of the wise men of business and politics to consult. After discussing the merits of several candidates for a short time, Card interjected. "But are they loyal?" he asked. "That's the most important thing." Says the called consultant: "Loyalty seemed to be all they care about." Bush would say the only way to have a truly free debate internally is if all involved are confident they won't read about who won and who lost in the next day's paper. But O'Neill says he never remembers that kind of debate happening in the first place.

This week in New York City, the Republicans are going to be selling moderation in bulk. With Rudy Giuliani and Arnold Schwarzenegger as his warm-up, Bush will pivot to talking about that ownership society. The Republican National Committee has foreshadowed the message of the day by boasting that the delegates are the convention's most diverse ever. How do they know? They have counted. The pageant will probably cause seizures among Bush's enemies. But they are not the target audience.

Bush has always played in the shadows of expectation--holding back and letting people's misimpressions grow and then coming forward to surprise them. The next few weeks will show whether he has run out that string. Wavering voters who were surprised by how his presidency has unfolded want to know what the next term may bring. To the extent that voters say they are putting pocketbook issues ahead of security concerns for now, he will have to show that he understands where they are. But there is little doubt about where Bush is. In a second term he will be just as intensely focused on the One Big Issue over which he has the most real influence. --With reporting by Douglas Waller/Washington