Campaign '04: BLUE TRUTH, RED TRUTH

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THE BLUE ARMIES DO HAVE SOME ADVANtages. Among the most potent weapons for Blue Truth, conservatives admit, have been documentaries. As a political force, notes Richard Viguerie, the godfather of direct mail, "that didn't exist four years ago. I had two meetings on that very issue this week. I feel conservatives do a lot of things well, but movies are not on that list." Among recent Blue Truth films are Unprecedented: The 2000 Presidential Election, which replays the controversy over the Florida recount, and Uncovered: The Whole Truth of the Iraq War. Both are produced by Robert Greenwald, whose Outfoxed film, a critical look at Fox News, sold 100,000 DVDs this summer. Meanwhile, MoveOn enlists actors like Martin Sheen and Matt Damon to sell its message. One marketing survey found that 40% of 18- to 24-year-olds said celebrity endorsements would influence their vote.

Still, Kerry has had to tread carefully around "allies" like filmmaker Michael Moore. Since supporting so controversial a figure could have cost him among independents, Kerry took to telling reporters who asked about Moore's incendiary anti-Bush documentary, Fahrenheit 9/11,that he didn't need to see it because he had been living the past four years. While any help is welcome, Kerry aides avoid talking to friends at the 527s for fear of looking as if they are coordinating their efforts, which is illegal, and so have no control over flammable ads or the whack-a-Bush online games that they fear could backfire and alienate the middle. In January, MoveOn supporters submitted an ad to its site comparing Bush to Hitler, which the Kerry campaign quickly condemned. Now MoveOn cofounder Wes Boyd says he bends over backward to see beyond the base. "It's a very centrist country," Boyd says.

The Kerry campaign says it has awakened. "We now have a pretty aggressive team that's out there watching what they do and pushing back," says Joe Lockhart, the former Clinton White House press secretary who joined the Kerry campaign a few weeks ago. The team still has time. In 2000, 14% of voters said they decided which presidential candidate to vote for only in the final two weeks of the campaign; 5%, enough to swing most elections, decided the day they voted.

But it is also true that four years ago, many said it didn't matter who won. Voters live in a different world now, a much scarier one in which uncertainty is uncomfortable. While there are still those who call themselves independent, prefer their news straight and have not decided whom to vote for, they may not be the target audience in this race. If Rove is right, the race will turn on which campaign has done a better job of finding its true believers, inspiring them with a stirring message and getting every last one to the polls on Election Day. --Reported by Perry Bacon Jr., Matthew Cooper, John F. Dickerson, Michael Duffy, Viveca Novak and Karen Tumulty/Washington and David Bjerklie/ New York