The Trouble with Polls and Focus Groups

THERE IS A LONG-STANDING HOLLYWOOD FANTASY ABOUT HOW to succeed in American politics. From Mr. Smith Goes to Washington to Bulworth, the story is the same: the hero is liberated when he breaks free from political convention and starts speaking from the heart. In the old days, Mr. Smith fought political bosses. Nowadays the bosses are political consultants. Senator Bulworth--in Warren Beatty's 1998 film--is liberated after deciding to commit suicide while watching his re-election ads.

Reality, unfortunately, is stingy with outspoken political heroes. Mavericks tend to lose, even compelling ones like John McCain. There is a reason for that: inconvenient truths are inconvenient to someone. And passion can be scary. McCain's assault on Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell cost him dearly in the 2000 campaign. Howard Dean's anger was causing him to lose altitude long before he screamed. Which is why politicians have concocted an entire industry--the polling and consulting wizardocracy--devoted to telling them what not to say. From Merlin to Rove, the most powerful adviser has been the one who says, "My crystal ball says, Don't go there" or "If you say that, Your Majesty, the Goths won't be happy."

The modern tricks of the wizardocracy--polls and focus groups--are not inherently malevolent. They are only as banal as the people who read them. Bill Clinton was a master: it was a focus group that taught him that it was better to "invest" in education than to "spend" on it. Clinton also knew when to ignore the polls, as he did on the Mexican bailout. Most pols aren't so clever, though. This year John Kerry and George W. Bush are relying on ancient market-tested formulations like (in Kerry's case) "Health care is a right, not a privilege" and (in Bush's case) "You know how to spend your money better than the government does." Which leads me to wonder if the golden age of campaign wizardry is coming to a close. The tools of the trade seem shopworn this year.

Take polling, please. The vast majority of Americans--as many as 90%, pollsters have told me privately--refuse to answer questions when the wizard calls (although the number is marginally better this hot election year). People who use cell phones exclusively, mostly younger voters, are unreachable. The wizards say they can correct for these things, by "weighting" their polls--that is, giving disproportionate weight to members of underrepresented groups like young people. But surely that makes polling less scientific and more speculative. It means polls should be trusted only to verify broad shiftsBush moved ahead in the presidential race after the Republican Conventionrather than specific point spreads.