Campaign 2000: Who Are McCain's Forces?

The most important showdowns will be next week in two of the nation's biggest states. California's G.O.P. voters, a fairly moderate and independent bunch, face a weird system--everyone can vote in the primary but only Republican votes count when it comes to awarding the state's 162 delegates. That leaves open the possibility that McCain could carry the popular vote even as Bush grabs the entire Golden State delegation. That would hand Bush the single most important victory, gift-wrapped in headlines about how it proves he'll be the loser in the fall. In New York the primary is open only to Republicans, and Governor George Pataki's machine is pulling out all the stops for Bush. But the state's moderate G.O.P. voters may prove receptive to McCain, and the machine may not be any better than John Engler's turned out to be in Michigan. Right now, said a G.O.P. official on Capitol Hill, "they couldn't deliver pizza, let alone an election."

McCain's aides believe Bush will let New England go. A McCain win up north would allow Bush to say, "See? It's liberal types who are backing that guy." Just as they are doing that, McCain's folks will continue to paint Bush as a captive of the intolerant South. Says a McCain aide: "We're prepared to concede the Confederacy."

Bush officials like to say the battle against McCain is "all about mathematics now," a delegate chase in which Bush has an unmistakable advantage. That argument might make sense, if anything about this election made sense anymore. As a G.O.P. strategist admitted, "There's a book that says, 'This is how you nail John McCain.' But everything in the rule book says he shouldn't be where he is now. He's defied all the rules. The rules don't apply."

--Reported by James Carney with Bush, John F. Dickerson with McCain and Michael Duffy/Washington