Run for the Roses

Vladimir Putin is a man possessed. He wants to rebuild a strong Russia with a powerful presidency and a flourishing economy. He is determined to crush separatism in Chechnya or anywhere else within Russia's borders. But first and foremost, he wants to end a decade of deep Russian despair. These are dramatic and ambitious goals but they are not new. Since Peter the Great, Russia's leaders have come to power dreaming of sweeping reforms. Most have ended up disappointed, thwarted by the country's unwieldiness and its bureaucrats' subtle sabotage. Despite Putin's refusal to offer explicit policies and his aides' admission that their programs are not ready to be implemented, expectations are growing that Putin will mark the start of his presidency with a series of dramatic gestures--among them, perhaps, a crackdown on high-level corruption. What is not clear is whether this will be a break with the sleazy Yeltsin past or simply window dressing.

Putin has already made headway in one area: restoring Russians' faith in themselves. His blunt, occasionally coarse style and energetic demeanor have so galvanized the electorate that he is all but a lock to swing into office as President--barring an unexpectedly low turnout or a last-minute erosion of popularity.

But even before the election, Putin has begun quietly dropping hints about how he views the state of affairs in Russia today. He knows it is a mess. He pledges loyalty to the man who gave him power, Boris Yeltsin. But asked recently by two Russian journalists to name his heroes, Putin singled out men who had pulled their countries out of chaos and catastrophe--neither of them Yeltsin. One was Charles de Gaulle, who created a solid, centralized state in France (and quickly pulled his country out of a colonial war in Algeria, a conflict that is often compared with that in Chechnya); the other was Ludwig Erhard, architect of West Germany's postwar economic revival. Putin sees obvious parallels with France of the 1950s and Germany of the late '40s.

Putin studiously avoids defining Yeltsin's legacy but hints broadly in his public appearances that central power under Yeltsin was feeble. Some regional leaders, he claims, "forgot that there was a President." Until he became Prime Minister, Chechnya was handled with "amateurism," he says, and left to fester to the point that it became a deadly danger.

Putin is inheriting a sick country in every sense of the word. Its population declined by 900,000 last year, and male life expectancy, around 60, stands at Third World levels. (Female life expectancy is more than 10 years longer.) Alcohol has killed millions; now an AIDS epidemic seems set to take its toll on both genders. Russia is also beset by other systemic diseases, foremost among them corruption. Few of Russia's 50 richest men could publicly explain how they moved from minor officials to billionaires in half a decade. Several have been investigated for crimes ranging from murder to embezzlement.