May The Shield Be With You

In the post-cold war world, Americans worry more about dotcom stocks falling on the NASDAQ than they do about missiles falling from the sky. For those who do fear nuclear holocaust, however, there is www.protectamericansnow.com There you can get your very own "Customized Missile Threat Profile." Just type in your ZIP code, and the program will tell you which countries purportedly have the ability to hit your community with intercontinental ballistic missiles--and which countries may soon have the power to make your life that kind of nightmare. The site was masterminded by Frank Gaffney, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Reagan Administration, who now runs a group that supports the installation of an antimissile shield to protect the U.S. "Take Action!" the site urges. "Your government does not provide you with any protection against missile attack from these and other countries."

The heart of Ronald Reagan's 1983 Star Wars program lives on, kept beating by a mix of election-year politicking, behind-the-scenes defense-industry puppeteering, and a fiercely committed group of conservative think tanks and antimissile-system advocates. It has propelled the National Missile Defense (NMD) system toward this Friday's scheduled test over the Pacific and is likely to move its development forward no matter the result. Pentagon officials liken the congressional push to deploy such a system to the early 1980s' fervent but vain effort to implement a "nuclear freeze" on the U.S. military. But they say missile-defense advocates appear to have a better chance of winning this time.

Not surprisingly, defense contractors too have a major interest in an NMD system, especially since its ultimate cost is estimated at more than $30 billion. The four largest weapons contractors--Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and TRW--together received more than $2.2 billion in missile-defense research-and-development money over a recent 21-month span, according to a report issued by the World Policy Institute. In 1997 and '98, the latest years for which figures are available, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and TRW spent $35 million on lobbying. Boeing is even readying a television campaign touting the need for missile defense.

But defense contractors don't really have to worry about politicians' turning off the funding spigot. They maintain that lawmakers' support for deployment remains solid and won't be weakened by test failures. Moreover, the issue is thriving in the presidential campaign. In May, George W. Bush unveiled his plan for combining unilateral arms cuts with a national missile system far more extensive--and expensive --than the one the Clinton Administration is considering. While Clinton's plan calls for the initial deployment of some 100 land-based interceptors at one site, Bush's yet-to-be-detailed plan envisions many more interceptors at numerous sites on land and at sea. Says Bush: "Our nation needs a new approach to nuclear security that matches a new era."

This particular new approach will certainly mean a new era in strategic thinking. The construction of NMD would be a violation of the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty with Russia. If Clinton pushes forward with the as yet unproven NMD, not only will security relations with Moscow be upended but a new era of strategic instability with China and other nations may also emerge.