Slobo's Next Target

All this has left the U.S. and its allies with a dilemma. Madeleine Albright, U.S. Secretary of State, and NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson have bluntly warned Milosevic to keep his hands off Djukanovic. But they have yet to back up those exhortations with the threat of force. The current NATO commander for Europe, U.S. General Joseph Ralston, has been "as quiet as a church mouse" on the topic, says analyst John Fox of the Washington-based Open Society Institute. Fox says the West has made a critical mistake by letting Milosevic take the offensive. The current stance--keeping Belgrade guessing with a measured ambiguity--carries the risk that he may call the bluff.

How might he do it? The most probable scenario would be some sort of disturbance or riot in which the police would open fire, allowing the army to step in and seize control--under the pretext of ensuring stability. That could then trigger a broader clash between the army and the police similar to the one that occurred in Croatia and Bosnia. In Podgorica local government officials say they are working hard to avoid that possibility, despite what many consider provocations from Belgrade.

Pro-Serb politicians in Montenegro, meanwhile, deny that anything ominous is afoot. Predrag Bulatovic, vice president of the Belgrade-backed Socialist People's Party, calls rumors of a coup "propaganda" invented by Djukanovic to sow instability and draw NATO into the fight. "The Yugoslav army is not politically motivated," he says blandly during an interview at his mountain farm. "It is a guarantor of stability." The Yugoslav army's top commander, Colonel General Nebojsa Pavkovic, who recently commended Slobodan Milosevic for his "wise and decisive policies that have preserved the dignity of our people," says his troops have been acting in Montenegro only to prevent "the infiltration of terrorists." He wonders aloud why his army would be planning a coup when it had tolerated Djukanovic for so long already.

Such logic aside, Western diplomats point out that Milosevic, like other autocrats, is not above creating bloody diversions if he feels his grip on power is threatened--as it may be by unexpected results in upcoming elections. And while independent-leaning Montenegrins, many of whom fought for Milosevic in earlier Balkan wars, do not savor the prospect of another battle, there is little love lost for a President whose policies have wrecked the economy and turned their homeland into a pariah state. One thing is clear: if there is a war in this tiny republic, it will be cataclysmic. For the West, intervention would be perilous too, probably requiring ground troops, according to some analysts. That's a repellent prospect for any U.S. President--whether he is on his way out, or in.

--With reporting by Dejan Anastasijevic/Cetinje and Massimo Calabresi/Washington