Throwing Their Red Hats into the Ring

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Besides suppressing one's will to power, there are other dos and don'ts for would-be Pontiffs. The addition of 11 Cardinals from Latin America, where half the world's Roman Catholics now reside, suggests that it's important to speak Spanish. The sheer number of Cardinals--most of whom see one another only rarely--would seem to favor talented networkers. Being in shape is a plus. The 33-day reign of John Paul I underlined the need for papal stamina, which may be one reason that Castrillion Hoyos rides an Exercycle. A moderate public image can't hurt either. Most of the Cardinals under 80 and therefore eligible to vote are doctrinal conservatives. John Paul named 92% of them. But it's possible to take too hard a line, as when Cardinal Giacomo Biffi urged the Italian government last year to favor Catholic immigrants over Muslims.

One big no-no: being an American. Vatican watchers agree that as long as the U.S. dominates the world economically and militarily, it will have to take a backseat spiritually. No one, it seems, wants a superpower Pope. But what about a Third World Pontiff? Talk of a Latin American has grown. Aside from Castrillon Hoyos, the buzz focuses on Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga, the Archbishop of Tegucigalpa, Honduras. John Paul is the first non-Italian Pope since the early 1500s. A Honduran successor looks like a stretch.

So the guessing goes on, and guessing is all it is. The Vatican handicappers are a subtle bunch, so sensitive to signs and signals that they can sound like conspiracy theorists. "Today, from the little I know, all these guys [the Cardinals] have e-mail," says Francis Burkle-Young, author of Passing the Keys and a veteran church observer. "You don't see anything in public. It's really a matter of conversations to feel out blocs. A couple of people let me see corners of it." Burkle-Young believes that the fix is in and that an Italian will return to the papacy when the ballots are counted.

To many Catholics, the whole idea that Cardinals compete for Popehood is mistaken and even offensive. After all, the choice of John Paul II surprised the world, as did every other recent papal election except for that of Paul VI in 1963. Certainly the fateful role the current Pope has played in history--hastening Europe's escape from Soviet communism--has, for many, an otherworldly quality. Will the Holy Spirit indeed pick the new Pope? Perhaps, but it will have only human beings from which to choose.

--Reported by Greg Burke/Rome