Dubya Talks The Talk

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RUSSIA. Last week the spy spat generated some real heat. When the Administration announced the mass expulsion and Moscow responded in kind, it recalled all the old Soviet-era standoffs. Moscow hyperventilated that the expulsions were a "throwback to the cold war" resulting from "cowboy-style" tactics. But the Bush team says the move showed their man's quiet muscle. The message to Moscow: Dubya is going to tell it like it is, with no pussyfooting around when Russia misbehaves.

The Administration calls the Hanssen case a convenient excuse to clean out a growing nest of Russian spies in the U.S. As the number of agents crept back to cold war levels--up 40% since 1995, to 160--the FBI complained of the burden on its counterintelligence teams and its budget. The CIA said tossing out Moscow's agents would only mean the loss of U.S. assets in Russia. Clinton tried to soft-talk Moscow into cutting back but failed; the incoming Bush team was eager to act.

Most analysts don't think the expulsions will cause long-term damage to U.S.-Russian relations. They're a routine part of the spy game and quickly fade away. But it's one more in a list of "unfriendly" disagreements between Washington and Moscow these days. There have been frequent rhetorical clashes over Moscow's decision to renew arms sales to Tehran, Washington's insistence it will go ahead with missile-defense systems, Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to drum up global resistance to the shield. The Russians were incensed by an interview in which Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld branded them an "active proliferator." Deputy Paul Wolfowitz chimed in, calling the Russian leaders "people willing to sell anything to anyone for money," who get billions in U.S. aid, then "turn around and do smaller quantities of obnoxious stuff that threatens our people."

The resulting bad air could choke the serious business between both sides. Washington says it still wants a cooperative, productive relationship, but Moscow bristles at the insults. The U.S. wants Russia to control its deteriorating nuclear arsenal and continue dismantling warheads, but Bush's new budget cuts back 10% on the aid Washington gives Moscow to comply. The U.S. says Bush is merely demonstrating a "certain clarity and a certain decisiveness," but the focus on differences may make it harder to bridge them. And Bush aides say that while he isn't trying to trash the relationship, he does intend to strip Russia of the special status it enjoyed under Clinton, and treat it just like any other country.

CHINA. Beijing has been adopting soft-line tactics toward Washington and seems shocked to discover that this Bush is no comfy replica of the elder one. George W. has plenty of advisers who see China as the looming enemy, a military rival bent on asserting its dominance over the Pacific. Bush is sounding a hard note on human rights and has resolved to go ahead with a Pacific missile shield that Beijing opposes. But at the same time he is being tugged hard in the opposite direction by trade-minded business interests that want to preserve engagement and cooperation.