Fuel For The Fire

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At the Cabinet meeting, Israel's army chief, Lieut. General Shaul Mofaz, outlined a plan for a bombing attack against Force 17. The 3,500-man force provides Arafat with his bodyguard and also mans checkpoints at the edges of Palestinian towns. Israel believes Force 17 has killed 10 Israelis during the Aqsa intifadeh. This is just Phase 1 in the plan formulated by Israel's generals. First comes shelling by tanks or helicopter missiles of Palestinian Authority security bases. Unless Arafat accedes to Sharon's demand for an end to violence, the bombing will continue. At any time, Sharon can ratchet to a "stage" in which the army will begin assassinating Palestinian leaders. The hits would be against senior but not prominent Palestinians.

If Sharon does move another phase forward in his plan, the Israeli army will seal off villages and conduct house-to-house searches for weapons. It will also clamp down on the movement of all goods except food, fuel and medicines, which will crush a Palestinian economy that has already lost $1.5 billion because of the intifadeh, according to the U.N. And military sources say they are not far from presenting Phase 3--declaring the Palestinian Authority an "enemy." That's a worst-case scenario in which Israel would view any building or official linked to the P.A. as a target. It would not mean all-out war against the Palestinian people, and Israel would not send its tanks to retake towns like Ramallah and Gaza. Still, it would be ugly.

Arafat is at best in only partial control of the onslaught aimed at Israelis. Hamas and Islamic Jihad sent five bombers into Israel last week. Arafat now walks a fine line between using these bombers to pressure Israel and allowing them to drag him into a bigger confrontation. But when Sharon struck last week, Arafat vowed to fight on.

Does that mean Phase 3? It would be a harder political sell for the Prime Minister. Says Ephraim Sneh, a Labor Party minister in Sharon's cabinet: "The Palestinian Authority is a rival, not an enemy. With a rival you aspire at the end of the day to negotiate." If that day's end comes, it will be far different from the day that ended in darkness and the thunder of helicopters in Ramallah.

--With reporting by Aharon Klein/Jerusalem