Oil Keeps Caucasian Cauldron Bubbling

Gunmen are holding four U.N. officials hostage in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, demanding the release of 10 of their comrades arrested for attempting to assassinate President Eduard Shevardnadze on Feb. 9.

The ongoing mayhem in the region may be rooted in oil politics, says TIME Moscow correspondent Andrew Meier. "There is suspicion that elements in the Russian security forces have given support to attacks on Shevardnadze," says Meier. Part of the reason might be that Western oil companies plan to route an Azerbaijan-Turkey oil pipeline through Georgia rather than Russia. "Russian interests would like to have some control over the pipeline, and Shevardnadze is regarded as a guarantor of Western interests in the region."

Meier believes that while the hostages will probably be released, Russian gunslingers will likely keep things interesting in the region as long as the oil is routed out of their control.