The Tipping Point Races: Shays v. Farrell

Connecticut: Chris Shays (R) v. Dianne Farrell (D)

This is the second time these two have faced each other; G.O.P. incumbent Chris Shays defeated former Westport First Selectwoman Dianne Farrell 52% to 48% in 2004. This time Shays, who has held this seat since 1987, has a major problem: Iraq. The moderate Congressman has become closely associated with his support for the war, as he has visited Iraq more than a dozen times since the invasion.

Farrell opposed the war from the beginning, and Shays' position has become increasingly unpopular in this blue state. In August, Shays became one of the few Republicans to call for a timetable for withdrawing from Iraq, while Farrell has called for creating benchmarks that determine when troops return home. Farrell's challenge is to convince voters to dump a well-liked congressman because they disagree with him on Iraq and want Democrats to control Congress as a check on President Bush.

Winner: Shays

NEXT: Taylor (R) v. Shuler (D)