Poll: A Weak Field Still Wide Open

Is the Democrats' glass two-thirds full or half empty?

A new TIME poll, conducted by SRBI Inc., finds that while a vast majority of voters (65%) think the Democrats will probably win the 2008 Presidential election, hypothetical matchups of actual candidates paint a very different picture. Specifically: the Democratic front-runner, Hillary Clinton, has a comfortable lead over Barack Obama for the party's nomination, but loses to the G.O.P. leader, Rudy Giuliani, by 5 points and to John McCain (in second place for the Republican nomination) by 2 (within the margin of error).

But these matchups may say more about Clinton's weakness as a general election candidate than they do about the Democratic field. This week, John Edwards and Obama both have improved their showings in the primary field and, even more significantly, Obama now ties with Giuliani in a trial heat (45%-45%) and bests McCain by a margin of 47% to 42%. What's more, both Edwards and Obama have made inroads into Clinton's geographic strongholds. In the Northeast, Edwards has narrowed her lead to just 11 points (down from 22 in March) and Edwards now leads in the Midwest. Clinton also faces a very tight race with Obama in the West, with just a 2% lead.

The Republicans' vulnerability in a general election is underscored by the party's dissatisfaction with the candidate field. Only 61% say they are happy with the selection — as compared with 71% of Democrats — and 28% aren't. These levels of satisfaction translate to showings for particular candidates as well: Only one Republican — Giuliani — breaks 45% in the proportion of voters who say they will "definitely" or "probably" support his candidacy."America's Mayor" ties with Obama at 48% for likely support, followed by Clinton at 46%, and Edwards and undeclared candidate Al Gore tied at 45%.

While some Republicans have pinned their hopes on the fresh face of Mitt Romney, he's too fresh for most voters to have an opinion about him — though they have at least heard of him. In January, 58% said they had never even heard his name; that's down to just 23%. No doubt, however, he has some more introductions to make: 11% of respondents say they know "a great deal" about Romney, 28% know "some." More good news for Romney: those who do know him find him "likeable" (49% say it accurately describes him) and believe he is "a true conservative on family values" (39%), a victory for a campaign that's been struggling with the perception that the former governor is a latecomer to those views.