Poll: Clinton Headed for Keystone State Win

(BOSTON) — Hillary Clinton (52%) leads Barack Obama (42%) among likely Pennsylvania Democratic voters, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University. Four percent of Democratic voters were undecided, and 2% refused a response. However, 20% of these likely Democratic voters said they would vote for John McCain in November if their Democratic choice does not win their party's nomination.

In addition to the 20% of disgruntled Democratic voters defecting to McCain, another 4% would vote for independent Ralph Nader, and 20% were undecided about what they would ultimately do in November.

"Hillary Clinton's projected win in Pennsylvania poses some serious problems for the Democratic Party at this point," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "First, it continues a bitter battle between the Democratic combatants; second, with 2% of core Democratic supporters fleeing to McCain, electability in November becomes a quantifiable problem; and third, it begs the question of who in the Democratic Party will become the ultimate peacemaker."

Nader's 4% could potentially quadruple, as 17% of Democratic respondents said that if their first choice does not get the Democratic nomination, they may vote for Nader.

Asked who would be the next president, more Democrats picked Obama (42%) regardless of whom they personally supported. Thirty-two percent chose Clinton, and 14% chose McCain, with 12% undecided.

A majority of respondents (56%) said they watched the ABC televised debate, while 44% did not. Clinton was the apparent winner among those who watched the debate: 46% said they were most impressed by her, 26% indicated Obama, and 28% were undecided.

Democrats were mostly forgiving of the recent controversies surrounding Clinton and Obama. Forty-two percent indicated that Clinton's Bosnia comment was just a mistake, while 25% said she exaggerated, and 21% said she outright lied. Nor did Obama's bitterness comment have traction with likely voters. Thirty-two percent agreed that his comment showed he is out of touch with rural Pennsylvania voters, while 56% disagreed.

Clinton (42%) was seen as the candidate best equipped to solve the country's economic troubles, followed by Obama (31%) and McCain (10%), with 17% undecided.

In other Suffolk University findings, 42% of those surveyed favored making the current administration’s tax cuts permanent, while 41 percent opposed. Yet, 27% favored tax increases to help close the budget deficit gap, while 65% opposed.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted April 19 - April 20, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 600 is +/- 4.00 percent at a 95% level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic Primary voters in the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary.

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