An Early Spring in Kosovo?

Kosovo’s warriors may not wait out the winter. The capture of eight Serb soldiers by ethnic Albanian fighters is threatening to end the cease-fire that stopped U.S. air strikes against the Serbs last year: Even as Serb forces gathered for an attack and Western observers scrambled to mediate Monday, guerrillas of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) said they would release the soldiers only as part of a prisoner exchange. “An exchange would legitimize the KLA as a political fighting force,” says TIME Central Europe reporter Dejan Anastasijevic. “For the same reason, the Serbs can’t make a deal with those they dismiss as terrorists.”

Even if the region’s hardworking Western observers broker a deal over the captive soldiers, the respite may be temporary. “The reason for the lull in fighting is less because of the cease-fire than because of the weather,” says Anastasijevic. “The issues underlying the conflict remain unresolved, but it’s difficult to fight in minus-20-degree temperatures. When the snows melt in a month or two, the war will probably resume.” And that will put Washington right back in its Balkan bind.